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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It's just ridging in the east through week 4 at least thanks to troughing from AK into PAC NW. Might ease by wee 4. Not to say we can't have a winter storm or two, but enjoy the snow now.

It doesn’t even look like a Niña pattern to me either.  It more resembles a super Niño zonal pattern with periods where slightly more ridging occurs in the eastern half.  Some of the EPS members 11-15 actually showed South Florida below normal which they haven’t been all winter 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a lot of talk in the community of a 1989 kind of deal . Hope not 

Even 1989-1990 returned for a time in late Feb and early Mar...a couple good snow events in there...and there were also a couple good events within the warm Jan/Feb pattern too.

 

Anyways, the ensembles on all guidance (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) are unanimous in a hostile pattern mid month...hopefully they are wrong, but kind of hard to discount that type of agreement. Hopefully it doesn't last long if it happens.

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Here is a snippet from an Isotherm post..  dated 12/31/17.  This sums things up pretty well:

I have no substantive alterations to this foregoing analysis. We may see a minor event in the coming 7 days, but meaningful storm threats are over for awhile most likely in my opinion. This will be a robust warming period with many days in the 50s later this month (potentially higher). There will be an incredible negative anomaly accumulated from the early month arctic air, but the second half of the month will do a very good job of eating away at that departure, possibly to the extent that we finish normal or even above normal. I don't believe this is the end of winter. I do however believe we are currently experiencing the peak of winter as far as combined snow and cold temperatures. I'll discuss the pattern down the road in more depth later, but a hint is that my thoughts are still essentially congruous with my winter outlook from November regarding progression; that is, I still like early-mid Feb for the second window for a potential larger storm. Glad to see the first window verified well.

 

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s stirring up emotions on purpose but any warm days has him severly concerned internally.

This.  

 

Yesterday and Wednesday he was denying any big warm up...the flip has set in. 

 

We will warm...but winter will return..common sense should tell you that, especially on January 5th lol.  

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6 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Here is a snippet from an Isotherm post..  dated 12/31/17.  This sums things up pretty well:

I have no substantive alterations to this foregoing analysis. We may see a minor event in the coming 7 days, but meaningful storm threats are over for awhile most likely in my opinion. This will be a robust warming period with many days in the 50s later this month (potentially higher). There will be an incredible negative anomaly accumulated from the early month arctic air, but the second half of the month will do a very good job of eating away at that departure, possibly to the extent that we finish normal or even above normal. I don't believe this is the end of winter. I do however believe we are currently experiencing the peak of winter as far as combined snow and cold temperatures. I'll discuss the pattern down the road in more depth later, but a hint is that my thoughts are still essentially congruous with my winter outlook from November regarding progression; that is, I still like early-mid Feb for the second window for a potential larger storm. Glad to see the first window verified well.

 

Well, he was wrong on the meaningful storm threats, and minor event in the next 7 days..cuz yesterday’s event had been a very meaningful threat; and was NOT A MINOR EVENT...so he was very wrong on that account.  

The other stuff is too far out to say obviously.  

 

I think a good thaw is coming and is in order. It will snow again this winter.  

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even 1989-1990 returned for a time in late Feb and early Mar...a couple good snow events in there...and there were also a couple good events within the warm Jan/Feb pattern too.

 

Anyways, the ensembles on all guidance (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) are unanimous in a hostile pattern mid month...hopefully they are wrong, but kind of hard to discount that type of agreement. Hopefully it doesn't last long if it happens.

JB has it going from Jan 15- Feb 5. That would be tough to handle . Then he’s got it returning hard again 

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43 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well, he was wrong on the meaningful storm threats, and minor event in the next 7 days..cuz yesterday’s event had been a very meaningful threat; and was NOT A MINOR EVENT...so he was very wrong on that account.  

The other stuff is too far out to say obviously.  

 

I think a good thaw is coming and is in order. It will snow again this winter.  

It would also be almost impossible at this point to finish above normal.  The pattern probably wouldn’t start effectively torching til maybe 1/17 and it doesn’t look to me like a major SER type setup so I see no way anyone really in the eastern 1/3rd of the nation finishes above normal 

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5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

EURO with a nice 2-3" of rain over the next 10 days... here comes the thaw it looks like.

Hoping for gradient pattern and just being on the right side of the gradient, lol.

I think many can score a wintry event next weekend with that look, given the deep snow cover and background cold throughout Quebec and New England...

That said, I don't like the way the teleconnections are "volatile" between now and then....If we end up with neutral to negative NAO, -AO, and +PNA, that 0z Euro/EPS run could wind up being way off and next weekend's storm look a lot different than what the 12z GEFS/0z EPS/0z euro currently show....

My early read for that system is for guidance to trend weaker and further southeast with that UL ridge  over the east coast ... and beef up that high in Quebec...

Plenty of time..We'll see...but I think the "great thaw" being advertised is going to be put off in much of new England through next weekend...We warm but we don't thaw (at least not yet).

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2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Here is a snippet from an Isotherm post..  dated 12/31/17.  This sums things up pretty well:

I have no substantive alterations to this foregoing analysis. We may see a minor event in the coming 7 days, but meaningful storm threats are over for awhile most likely in my opinion. This will be a robust warming period with many days in the 50s later this month (potentially higher). There will be an incredible negative anomaly accumulated from the early month arctic air, but the second half of the month will do a very good job of eating away at that departure, possibly to the extent that we finish normal or even above normal. I don't believe this is the end of winter. I do however believe we are currently experiencing the peak of winter as far as combined snow and cold temperatures. I'll discuss the pattern down the road in more depth later, but a hint is that my thoughts are still essentially congruous with my winter outlook from November regarding progression; that is, I still like early-mid Feb for the second window for a potential larger storm. Glad to see the first window verified well.

 

Agree entirely, aside from storm window.

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