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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah.. was just gonna mention that the intermediate stream mechanics for that whole ordeal is just is only getting ejected out of that elongated SPV over the N pac; this run in some respects is just as dicey as any up to this point. 

By my estimation, the "southern" stream shortwave is the swirl over BC right now, the northern stream is trucking along south of the Aleutians.

But there are still some pieces, like north of Nunavut that will come into play.

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Somebody (Bob maybe?) posted an image yesterday showing something like 7 different pieces of Energy as they were currently (yesterday) that had to be resolved.

Lots of things need to go right,  but several models showing hits right now.  We are good for a few hours of enjoyment today.

Lets see what the Euro brings

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Somebody (Bob maybe?) posted an image yesterday showing something like 7 different pieces of Energy as they were currently (yesterday) that had to be resolved.

Lots of things need to go right,  but several models showing hits right now.  We are good for a few hours of enjoyment today.

Lets see what the Euro brings

I did

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4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Somebody (Bob maybe?) posted an image yesterday showing something like 7 different pieces of Energy as they were currently (yesterday) that had to be resolved.

Lots of things need to go right,  but several models showing hits right now.  We are good for a few hours of enjoyment today.

Lets see what the Euro brings

This is why triple phasers are rare.

Even a triple phase rarely has just three pieces coming together. Even a basic Northeast snow storm typically has a northern, southern, and kicker shortwave.

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15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

By my estimation, the "southern" stream shortwave is the swirl over BC right now, the northern stream is trucking along south of the Aleutians.

But there are still some pieces, like north of Nunavut that will come into play.

yup, and there's a lot of sensitivity ...with very minute alterations in correct sampling and/or assimilation techniques easily contributing to intensity and track ...

I mean those details play a roll in the whole circulation medium ...etc, such as whether the ridge in the west pops some critical DM taller ...subsequently tipping the flow more N at mid levels through the Dakotas ... It's changing not just storm-centric mechanics, but also the indirect influence of the surrounding circulation idiosyncrasies.  oy. System could end up incredibly deep bet thinly miss east...  Moderate and directly striking,... or mix matching those characteristics...

All of which would still actually be statistically supported by the large mass-field arguments, too...  That's the other thing, if if missed entirely east and we smoke frigid dry air under milk skies, it's still an successful in purely atmospheric terms.

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12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Nothing worse than getting a miss followed by brutal cold air. 

We have to hope that GEM is correct. 

Surprising the GFS barely gets 4 inches to Boston. A complete miss is still on the tabke as well.

Still time to correct things, I personally think this comes west enough for most. Just a hunch that I think this digs more and curls it back then what most current guidance shows. 

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would not count you out. 

Deff not. I see subtle improvements with the northern stream diving further in the backside of the trough. 

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6 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Just a few short minutes until the first "euro looks better" posts.

to be followed by "maybe not"  and then "euro looks east"  and then "last minute capture?"  and then "looks great here!" by someone without a location  and Scott will say something intentionally oblique just to f*ck with us weenies.

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