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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I dont think it’s a trend, yet. 

Looking at last three runs of GFS, from H5 vort, it's clear that northern and southern stream are closer to each other. The earlier they're close, the better.

Probably a start of trend, IMO. We'll see.

GFS.png

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The good thing is, the two pieces of energy are 1: breaking off a cutoff low in 48hrs in western canada and 2: an alutean low rotating into AK with other lows in a log jam.

There’s so much noise around Alaska that I just cannot fathom how computers can pin point each vort and perfectly place them into a developing trough. Variance is really high, imo. 

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6 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Looking at last three runs of GFS, from H5 vort, it's clear that northern and southern stream are closer to each other. The earlier they're close, the better.

Probably a start of trend, IMO. We'll see.

GFS.png

Trough is sharper and the northern stream vort digs further south, Southern stream vort is a hair slower and stronger this run.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At least we have something else to watch, aside from the steam radiating up from the sewer caps.

If we can make minor adjustments tomorrow and sunday....when better sampling of whatever lobe decides to break off around NYE/NYD and start its dive into the southeast, with another one on its heels.....We will be in good shape.

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Trough is sharper and the northern stream vort digs further south, Southern stream vort is a hair slower and stronger this run.

I really like where we are right now. It wouldn't take much more connection to pull this storm closer, especially with more sampling over Alaska and northwestern Canada. Tomorrow and Sunday will bring us clearer picture of what we're dealing with.

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1 minute ago, WxBlue said:

I really like where we are right now. It wouldn't take much more connection to pull this storm closer, especially with more sampling over Alaska and northwestern Canada. Tomorrow and Sunday will bring us clearer picture of what we're dealing with.

That was a head scratcher the last couple days to have this tucked in close to the coast and tracking inland only to have it shift 500 miles east in a couple runs, H5 maps had a lot of variation to them as the models try to sort this all out, Better sampling should give us a clearer picture over the next couple days but you have to like where it seems to be heading right now.

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