Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Not going to lie, it reminds me of the WAA thump forecast for last year's March blizzard. The models definitely over-did that QPF...remember it was showing like widespread 0.6-1.2" QPF in like a 6-hour time moving through New England? It snowed big but I remember talk afterwards that models were way too high on that amount of moisture coming out with the thump. Totally totally different, that storm didn't have a moisture feed from the Pacific across the GOM over the Gulf Stream. Look at the entire setup. That screams 5/6 SD negative 850 inflow. It's about a perfect setup of moisture transport into a deeply Arctic airmass as there is. Cod mehs an inch of QPF lol , this place is nutz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 21 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Euro would actually probably cause a bunch of meltdowns in here. Shades of Boxing Day with dry slot working in. Was under that dry slot.... terrible thing to recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s such a bizarre solution. I find it hard to believe there would be so much QPF with dual lows. Someone gets porked. "Wut". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Give it another run or two with consistency (inside D3) for over-analysis or any detail what-so-ever. It's going to change then change some more right up to go time...Take away IS it's there! PERIOD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Nice dryslot on that bad boy lol. Shades of boxing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Totally totally different, that storm didn't have a moisture feed from the Pacific across the GOM over the Gulf Stream. Look a the entire setup. That screams 5/6 SD negative 850 inflow. It's about a perfect setup of moisture transport into a deeply Arctic airmass as there is. Cod mehs an inch of QPF lol , this place is nutz I don't care if the moisture feed is from the amazon, if the mid levels go west, then the dry slot will truncate the period of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I lean more east. I'm very skeptical when it's this cold of something trying to run the coastline. But I guess if the upper air pattern helps it.... I don't really see how a deep low like that just plows inland with the Arctic air entrenched. Nice to over-analyze a day 7-8 threat though. It most likely won't. But if it does it will not displace surface cold and we'll go from heavy snow to sleet then to a frigid (10'sF) freezing drizzle. I've seen it happen a couple of times in deep cold. Hoping not, of course, storm slides over benchmark with an enormous shield of precipitation and high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: "Wut". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Prob be some decent snow... but that isn’t a blockbuster here. Not with that track. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't care if the moisture feed is from the amazon, if the mid levels go west, then the dry slot will truncate the period of snow. Gosh do I love following the weather, and belonging to this robust community of manly men and manly women who share that interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 I’ll lock Boxing Day I’m a heartbeat. Please yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't care if the moisture feed is from the amazon, if the mid levels go west, then the dry slot will truncate the period of snow. Queens gonna queen. Pete repete every year. I look at day 7 evolution as a signal, others lay down rain snow lines, qpf maxes and minimums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 Give me a few hours of heavy snow and I’m happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: Give it another run or two with consistency (inside D3) for over-analysis or any detail what-so-ever. It's going to change then change some more right up to go time...Take away IS it's there! PERIOD! Miss you man, you get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Bottom line...big storm should develop. Yeah still so far out though. Im waiting for Will to come in and put some perspective down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Bottom line...big storm should develop. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’ll lock Boxing Day I’m a heartbeat. Please yes. Think some forget the evolution of Boxing Day but remember the dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Not going to lie, it reminds me of the WAA thump forecast for last year's March blizzard. The models definitely over-did that QPF...remember it was showing like widespread 0.6-1.2" QPF in like a 6-hour time moving through New England? It snowed big but I remember talk afterwards that models were way too high on that amount of moisture coming out with the thump. Maybe for some places. We had 15.5" with 2.12" LE, and 10 of those 15.5 came 4P-9P. Given the overall ratio between 7:1 and 8:1, we likely got 1.2-1.4" LE during those 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Take a euro op EPS compromise and all are happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 EPS look sub 1000mb east of the BM. Strong signal at this range, but no sense in overanalyzing at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Think some forget the evolution of Boxing Day but remember the dry slot I don't recall any of it. What year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Other than James, perhaps, there is not one of us that would look at that set up and not salivate over it. Skip over the QPF. That is about a good as it gets with a low coming out of the South. cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't recall any of it. What year? Too much craft beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Prob be some decent snow... but that isn’t a blockbuster here. Not with that track. Nope Right where we want you at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s such a bizarre solution. I find it hard to believe there would be so much QPF with dual lows. Someone gets porked. I want to know why nyc is in the bullseye so often in these modeled big storms....I have seen these all snow qpf printouts so often jp nyc metro....even though they have only verified a few times verbatim but still it is uncanny and seems to go along with the ridiculous amount of double digit snows have fallen in that zone in recent decades it is almost like they are in a sweet spot like ne ct or orh and nw ri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said: I want to know why nyc is in the bullseye so often in these modeled big storms....I have seen these all snow qpf printouts so often jp nyc metro....even though they have only verified a few times verbatim but still it is uncanny and seems to go along with the ridiculous amount of double digit snows have fallen in that zone in recent decades it is almost like they are in a sweet spot like ne ct or orh and nw ri 7 days out or at verification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 18 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Was under that dry slot.... terrible thing to recall me too, I am still having nightmares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Too much craft beer I'm dead serious. What year? Hell, I don't really know what Boxing Day is until I just looked it up. Filed under something I don't need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 EPS is all over the place but mostly a lot farther east. Tons of whiffs too. The mean is real nice for BOS. Then again you wouldn't expect the mean to be west of the OP lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: 7 days out or at verification? both and everywhere in between....almost like it is written into one of the algorithims Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.