ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I'd be careful not to overplay the whole frequency of bigger events....we've def seen them the past couple decades but very likely at a higher rate than would be attributable to warming. A full degree Celsius of warming is a 7% increase in water vapor...so like tripling the frequency of huge events in a 15-20 year span doesn't square with that as majority attribution. We've been lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd be careful not to overplay the whole frequency of bigger events....we've def seen them the past couple decades but very likely at a higher rate than would be attributable to warming. A full degree Celsius of warming is a 7% increase in water vapor...so like tripling the frequency of huge events in a 15-20 year span doesn't square with that as majority attribution. We've been lucky. Absolutely. Enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 A lot regression aggression going here tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 11 12 , climate . Lots of lemming posts in here. 15-16 wasn't a ratter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: 15-16 wasn't a ratter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: 15-16 wasn't a ratter? Worst in over 20 years here... and who knows how far back it would go. But some in SNE had a couple/few decent events add up relative to average. Good SE to NW gradient of suck that winter. We do have a forum region that has a wide variance, but if you averaged out New England, that winter was a top 3 ratter in decades. Similar to 11-12 and 01-02. The winter of 2006-07, while ending up ok up here and even down through central New England, was definitely a ratter for SE regions of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 06-07 and 11-12 are about the deadest ratters you could possibly have. We are due for another in that vein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: 06-07 and 11-12 are about the deadest ratters you could possibly have. We are due for another in that vein Say the models are right and a decent event takes place in southern and eastern New England, most would be above normal for the winter at that point. Hard to even be thinking ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: 06-07 and 11-12 are about the deadest ratters you could possibly have. We are due for another in that vein I can't believe how solid your years have been down there since 12-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Say the models are right and a decent event takes place in southern and eastern New England, most would be above normal for the winter at that point. Hard to even be thinking ratter. Yeah I don't think anyone is even going there. Just that at some point the exorbitant averages are going to get lowered. Hoprfully not by way of 11-12 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: 15-16 wasn't a ratter? Doesn’t he live in the Maritimes though? How was it there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Eventually you warm and chop away at the beginning andb end months of winter. It’s not good. Is that why November is no longer a winter month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: 06-07 and 11-12 are about the deadest ratters you could possibly have. We are due for another in that vein I’m not so sure... are we due for 3 dead rats in a 10 year period? Seems like more than you would expect. I think we are due for more average years for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not so sure... are we due for 3 dead rats in a 10 year period? Seems like more than you would expect. I think we are due for more average years for sure though. Could be right though i feel like we had some serious duds in the 10 years prior too. 00/01 and 97/98? I dont know the stats off the top of my head. But to your point..i agree it would be hard to match the suckitude of those two seasons even if we regress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I can't believe how solid your years have been down there since 12-13. 5 years running with slightly above or well-above normal. Somethings gotta give soon. It may not be this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Say the models are right and a decent event takes place in southern and eastern New England, most would be above normal for the winter at that point. Hard to even be thinking ratter. Correct..im definitely not referring to this winter, yet. We are running near or above so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Based on several factors I have looked into, while munching on medicinal gummie bears, larger or more extreme events are becoming more common. In fact, the ‘seesaw’ of the planet has increased a) in distance from the center on both ends and b ) the speed of which it is ‘seesawing’. While the sample size is small, in relevant terms, the chain reaction of this process is so infinite, yet delicate, that Steven Hawking thinks there isn’t much time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Winter can end tomorrow and I wouldn't care. My life does not center around whether or not it snows. This cold is for the birds though. I prefer my faux cold over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 57 minutes ago, dendrite said: 15-16 wasn't a ratter? 42.5 versus 25, yea 11 12 was the ratter of the decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 42 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Say the models are right and a decent event takes place in southern and eastern New England, most would be above normal for the winter at that point. Hard to even be thinking ratter. Lol this thread has a Dec 14 feel when in fact it's climo norm snow and BN temps for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol this thread has a Dec 14 feel when in fact it's climo norm snow and BN temps for most My favorite meltdowns were the pattern theads in mid January 2015 with a cutter imminent on the 19th and the apocalyptic meltdowns in late January 2013 saying how the predictions of a snowier pattern were a huge failure...after like 1 week of cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 42.5 versus 25, yea 11 12 was the ratter of the decade 15-16 was like the ratter of my life. lol I'd take 11-12 over it every day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: My favorite meltdowns were the pattern theads in mid January 2015 with a cutter imminent on the 19th and the apocalyptic meltdowns in late January 2013 saying how the predictions of a snowier pattern were a huge failure...after like 1 week of cold and dry. Pete repete, same sh it different year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said: 06-07 and 11-12 are about the deadest ratters you could possibly have. We are due for another in that vein I think 2011-2012 is another tier of ratter than 2006-2007...the second half of that season was pretty good, but we just didn't catch many breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pete repete, same sh it different year I'm completely satisfied so far this season. No complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd be careful not to overplay the whole frequency of bigger events....we've def seen them the past couple decades but very likely at a higher rate than would be attributable to warming. A full degree Celsius of warming is a 7% increase in water vapor...so like tripling the frequency of huge events in a 15-20 year span doesn't square with that as majority attribution. We've been lucky. I agree. Its a combination of luck and warming imo. We also can't forget the 6 hour swipe-slants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I don't think anyone is even going there. Just that at some point the exorbitant averages are going to get lowered. Hoprfully not by way of 11-12 lol. Its more south of Boston imo....we've been through this, but my 2 year mean isn't that anomalous.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree. Its a combination of luck and warming imo. We also can't forget the 6 hour swipe-slants. Yeah the measurement stuff def makes it higher but even taking account for that we've had a lot more monster storms recently. The 6 hourly measurements were around in the 1980s too. You can reduce some of these storms by 20% and a site like ORH still has an obscene percentage of top 15 storms in the past two decades. But long term the 6 hourly def bolsters it compared to, say, the 1950s/1960s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 15-16 was an all time ratter in this region. Peru VT COOP had 45" at 1700ft. That blew away the previous record by 20" . They have like 70-80 years of good data too. There is no hard data recorded there, but I honestly think Bennington VT had under 10" during 15-16. I know its not a prime snow spot, but they are still at 800ft in SVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I'm starting to get excited about that 1/4 threat......I Have more confidence in that than I normally would at that range. I'd consider 2" this weekend a steal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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