Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 -EPO is def the reason this went from a cutter to full on winter event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 A SWFE is a cutter with antecedent cold, well placed +pp and a triple point low. But the sw flow aloft is induced by the mid levels tracking west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 12z GFS with another solid shift SE. SLP is now over the Bay of Fundy at 84 hours. We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: -EPO is def the reason this went from a cutter to full on winter event Winter event...I agree, and probably a better way to describe it. Without the neg EPO, there is no antecedent cold, no triple point and no snow. But mid levels can still cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GGEM is now a SWFE................. Time to create its own topic I'd think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, MaineJayhawk said: Time to create its own topic I'd think The last wave on the front blows up over CC and drops from 993 mb to 963mb over CAR................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I've been waiting about 10 years for a solid ice storm and I might just get it .. GFS 2m temps look a little too warm, too me across the interior. Def keeps low lvl flow N/NE with a couple cool meso low type features .. who knows, maybe this isn't done trending? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Winter event...I agree, and probably a better way to describe it. Without the neg EPO, there is no antecedent cold, no triple point and no snow. Yes. And to the mid level argument-this is why ice happens. As someone once said, we don’t live at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Safe to say we'll need a thread for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, ma blizzard said: I've been waiting about 10 years for a solid ice storm and I might just get it .. GFS 2m temps look a little too warm, too me across the interior. Def keeps low lvl flow N/NE with a couple cool meso low type features .. who knows, maybe this isn't done trending? The sfc boundary stays well SE in far SE MA...take 'em down in the interior. That's prob a massive ice storm for the interior if you adjust the GFS 2m temp bias (and prob most other guidance which is also too warm at the sfc in these setups) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Winter event...I agree, and probably a better way to describe it. Without the neg EPO, there is no antecedent cold, no triple point and no snow. But mid levels can still cut. What mid levels? The H5 vortmax tracks over SNE now. We're close to popping a 2ndry near Kevin's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I would argue there's prob a lot of ice in E MA too just off the coast on the GFS with that cold tuck that occurs. You have the sfc flow straight from SE NH and S ME at 12z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: I've been waiting about 10 years for a solid ice storm and I might just get it .. GFS 2m temps look a little too warm, too me across the interior. Def keeps low lvl flow N/NE with a couple cool meso low type features .. who knows, maybe this isn't done trending? I’ve been waiting here since a decent one in 2004. Looks like I may finally get it as we don’t sniff 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Looks like the Christmas day storm is MIA again this run. Probably a product of the Fri/Sat system sagging south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The snow is looking a bit better for the pike region on 12z guidance so far...best is still up in CNE, but we may score a few inches before icing on some of these solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I’m so excited, and I just can’t hide it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 MOnday is crap on the GFS. Tries for Ray's inverted nipple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Its done the IVT thing for the last few runs now, It tells me it may try to pop a secondary on the south coast at some point like the GGEM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Yes, please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 La-la-la lock it in. Pants tent rising for a major icer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: MOnday is crap on the GFS. Tries for Ray's inverted nipple. Typical gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Created thread for Dec 22-23: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50644-dec-22-23-snowice-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Whineminster said: La-la-la lock it in. Pants tent rising for a major icer. No power for Christmas is a Pants tent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve been waiting here since a decent one in 2004. Looks like I may finally get it as we don’t sniff 32 Why not, having electricity at Christmas is overrated anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Yeah... I’ll take the under on any significant icing or wintry precip here. Which is fine with me. I’ll take power for Christmas over ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Those praying for ice, hope good luck in darkness on xmas. Tree lights ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Day 7 setup on the GFS makes Scooter jump up and down like a giddy school girl. Classic sprawling high with overrunning coming in from the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Those praying for ice, hope good luck in darkness on xmas. Tree lights ftl. with an arctic blast on its heels, good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 You can keep the ice, Allset on that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: No power for Christmas is a Pants tent? one way to keep warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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