Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

WxUSAF

December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No doubt. For a d10+ ens mean it doesn't get much colder in these parts. Some of the sub zero readings in the upper mw later this week are going to be insane. 

Mean precip during the cold period for us is around .3-.4. Gotta hope we avoid cold and dry. 

I think we're probably seeing the outer limit of how much time it takes to get the front through here. Prob won't happen on Christmas but still within the realm. 26-27th seems reasonable. Don't think it will lag much beyond that (hopefully). 

 

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Sing it with me!  So this is Christmas and what have you done...

87D1073C-9159-4673-BAB3-9698B8F7AB44.jpeg

That made me smile...and I am not in the mood to smile but it happened anyway.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Honestly, what the GFS shows is kind of tolerable. 40s isn't the end of the world. The Euro on the other hand...

gfs_T2m_neus_34.thumb.png.e002a2eb29aeaa591bc4d71842e75fa7.png

ecmwf_t2max_maryland_35.thumb.png.49240064edcad5c19893028c84e7dffa.png

I'd take nice and warm over cold and dry any day if that's how it's gonna be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

DT still doesn't like the GFS even though the Euro caved (he probably thinks these are fluke runs)

 

 

What did that crusty forecaster say about a 240 hr Euro run?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like 18z GFS is gonna be slightly better than 12z. Looks worse than 6z, but better than 18z at bringing the cold air in from West to East. Not to the 25th yet, but the cold air is slightly farther East on the 22nd compared to 12z

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We finally get a run that backs off inatead of strengthening the SER.

I would sell all my kids' Christmas presents to get a pressing hp to the north on Christmas eve. 

Let’s hope you’re right that 12z was rock bottom and we dilly dilly ourselves of the pit of misery this week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Let’s hope you’re right that 12z was rock bottom and we dilly dilly ourselves of the pit of misery this week.

Feels like it doesn't it? Maybe we can back into something as the strong front comes through. That part is far from resolved. Would be nice to score even just 1" right before we get 3-4 days of sub freezing temps. Some -20 stuff showing up in the upper midwest. If that's even close to real....and we have an inch of snow on ground when the core of the cold hits...it's possible we could score an elusive sub zero reading in Dec.  I don't know the last time that happened in Dec. Gym would know. Hopefully he reads this. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Imagine how memorable this December would be if we hit 70 degrees on the 24th or 25th, and then got a sub zero reading at one of the airports the following week? Could be possible

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If JB tweeted about 18z...."18z GFS comes around to our thinking..expect continued east adjustment of arctic front with snow chances and convective feedback issues with 12z runs resolved.. Yes Virginia there is a Santa Claus"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Feels like it doesn't it? Maybe we can back into something as the strong front comes through. That part is far from resolved. Would be nice to score even just 1" right before we get 3-4 days of sub freezing temps. Some -20 stuff showing up in the upper midwest. If that's even close to real....and we have an inch of snow on ground when the core of the cold hits...it's possible we could score an elusive sub zero reading in Dec.  I don't know the last time that happened in Dec. Gym would know. Hopefully he reads this. 

93 /94 winter? 

I remember the last week of Dec 93 being real cold but I could be wrong 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

93 /94 winter? 

I remember the last week of Dec 93 being real cold but I could be wrong 

It was. Front with a serious snow,squall Christmas night. Then nice little 2-4 inch event on I believe the 27th.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

It was. Front with a serious snow,squall Christmas night. Then nice little 2-4 inch event on I believe the 27th.

Nice memory for the details . And that cold built into January with a vengeance.  94 is my cold benchmark. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice memory for the details . And that cold built into January with a vengeance.  94 is my cold benchmark. 

Yes it was tremendous. Remarkable January. So close to to major snow as well. We were about 30 miles to south.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z GEFS is everything we want to see in improvements. SE ridge is smaller on Christmas day as compared to 12z, and the cold gets pushed out on the 26th faster than the 12z. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

18z GEFS is everything we want to see in improvements. SE ridge is smaller on Christmas day as compared to 12z, and the cold gets pushed out on the 26th faster than the 12z. 

Still 8 days until the 25th..you never know what could happen

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Yes it was tremendous. Remarkable January. So close to to major snow as well. We were about 30 miles to south.

I believe we had a high only to 0 F -  3F on 1 or 2 days in Jan. The ice had INCREDIBLE Staying  power. Nothing melted 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z GEFS 7 day precip anomaly from Christmas through New Years Day is ‘normal’ (i.e. we’re within the -0.5 to +0.5 area).  I’d like to see us in the + precip departures to time the precip better but at least the cold looks impressive.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

It was. Front with a serious snow,squall Christmas night. Then nice little 2-4 inch event on I believe the 27th.

The snow squall was serious indeed. But even more serious was the traffic nightmare than followed late Christmas night. The region  was paralyzed like that inch of snow a couple of years ago

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×