ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Guidance has been trying to strengthen this shortwave just enough to try and get some light snow into SNE late tonight and early tomorrow. This looks lime mostly for CT/RI and maybe parts of southern MA. Yesterday's storm is still winding up to our northeast which creates a meat grinder flow in SNE...otherwise this would probably be a very good event (high end advisory type stuff). Still, may get a period of steady snow in southern regions....12z RGEM shows the potential...doubt anyone gets more than an inch, but who knows in far southern areas if a little band can get going: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I do expect to see flakes. My biggest concern is how long do we take to saturate? This is such a cold/dry airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I do expect to see flakes. My biggest concern is how long do we take to saturate? This is such a cold/dry airmass. Yeah there is def gonna be a hell of a virga storm for some. SW CT has the best chance of getting an inch or more I think. It's a pretty potent little vortmax though, so can't rule out a decent band or two for some if we can overcome the dry air. I think it would be pure fluff...soundings are good for dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 That Reggie has that dark blue blob over my area....but like Baroclinic said...how much gets eaten up by the Arctic dry air???? Hey, if we see some flakes, it's better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I’m expecting around an inch . Think it will snow fairly quickly after echoes start showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 That's a really nice H7-H5 RH curl moving right overhead. Normally I'd be giddy. The drier air may win...but I'd keep an eye out for that up to the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's a really nice H7-H5 RH curl moving right overhead. Normally I'd be giddy. The drier air may win...but I'd keep an eye out for that up to the pike. Yep, if that system to our northeast was a little further away, we'd be talking 4-8". Potent vortmax and great track too...right through NJ/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Ginx may start sniffing this threat soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ginx may start sniffing this threat soon I'd watch upstream obs this evening...if we see some solid 3/4 vis snows in places like ROC, ITH, ALB, then that is a good sign for SNE. If it is having a hard time going north of BFD-ELM-BGM...then we're prob just looking at a few flakes...maybe still OK for south coast of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Im expecting 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Light refreshers are nice even if just an inch or so. Makes a firm pack look powdery and mid-winter again. Winter appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Light refreshers are nice even if just an inch or so. Makes a firm pack look powdery and mid-winter again. Winter appeal. I got nothing to refresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I got nothing to refresh. Then time to rebuild the pack there with a surprise 4" fluff band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Any similarities to 12/31/16 but 50 miles south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Then time to rebuild the pack there with a surprise 4" fluff band. He doesn’t like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Any similarities to 12/31/16 but 50 miles south? I would say it reminds me of those Jan 2004 clippers....quite cold and trying to breach a meat grinder flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: He doesn’t like snow Never too late to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I would say it reminds me of those Jan 2004 clippers....quite cold and trying to breach a meat grinder flow. I just said that to someone. Dear God I hated that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just said that to someone. Dear God I hated that. One of those produced like 35 to 1 ratios down along the south coast and into NYC area...they got like 7" on 0.2" L.E. Could def be a fluff band somewhere late tonight/early tomorrow in southern areas. Just gotta see if the low levels can be overcome. Like it wouldn't shock me if someone is posting 3" of snow on like a tenth of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Fluff jobs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: One of those produced like 35 to 1 ratios down along the south coast and into NYC area...they got like 7" on 0.2" L.E. Could def be a fluff band somewhere late tonight/early tomorrow in southern areas. Just gotta see if the low levels can be overcome. Like it wouldn't shock me if someone is posting 3" of snow on like a tenth of liquid. There is decent lift in the DGZ. Could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: There is decent lift in the DGZ. Could happen. DGZ is thick too on the soundings. Just need the low levels to cooperate with the moisture. Lets hope for a little tick north throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: DGZ is thick too on the soundings. Just need the low levels to cooperate with the moisture. Lets hope for a little tick north throughout the day. At least we don't have Bruce Willis pressing CAA at 850 from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He doesn’t like snow Not a huge fan anymore. Just give me the big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: At least we don't have Bruce Willis pressing CAA at 850 from the NW. LOL. Yeah we will get plenty of midlevel moisture in here. Probably an awesome virga storm for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Couple flurries out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Been having some really light snow falling here(very fine tiny lil flakes)...but nevertheless it is snowing. Good news for later on?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Same here in Enfield, leaving a dusting at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Lake effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Euro went a little more robust at 12z. Def could be an inch or two in CT/RI and S MA if things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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