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December 12, 2017 - Late Bloomer Coastal


Baroclinic Zone

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Real talk, the mid shift will admit a cold bias climo was baked into the forecast. We know the rules in these events: the surface cold hangs on tougher than expected but the sleet (warmth aloft) is also closer than expected.

If I had to do it over again I might lower QPF, especially in the 18-00z period tomorrow. I think we were a little high with that dry slot racing in.

That being said, I could see a 2-3 period of 1”/hr+ snowfall before a flip given the strong f-gen that should lead the warmth. That could give many 3-5” before taint and push warnings if someone hangs onto cold longer.  

Thanks for your frankness.  Still not a bad outcome in the interior, if we can get that quick dump and then dryslot.  It'll freeze up solid Tues night and Wed and that is our base.  Not worth riding over though from Dover to Boscawen I don't think.

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2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

My 2-5'' in the Merrimack Valley south of CON is too high. I'd be surprised if we saw any more than like 1-2'' before the taint arrives now that I look closer. Getting less excited by the moment. 

A couple cycles ago, there is a really nice slug of lift that moved through pike region up to your 'hood during the early morning hours...but now most of that is further north in the initial stages. So we're stuck with mostly light stuff while the atmosphere still supports snow.

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The HRRRX (huge caveats there of course) is interesting. It really shows how this is looking more like a boundary layer torch. 850s don’t kiss 0C until very late in the event, no warmth at 700. So it’s all low level warming.

Obviously we don’t want that, but it goes to show you how models could bust if they don’t handle the low level cold well.

On it’s face I would call the HRRR a net gain/neutral vs. a net loss.

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Just now, DomNH said:

Winter Storm Watch to no headline at all. Pretty much sums up this event. 

This event has trended worse for like 4 straight model cycles and isn't showing any sign of a last minute trend back the other way like we sometimes see. Too bad because that could help a lot of folks. Guess we can't win them all...hopefully the CAD overperforms.

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I think Wednesday morning will be a lot more interesting in VT and NH (maybe even parts of NW MA) than anything we see tomorrow. With that huge 500 mb Low diving in overhead, and UL heights crashing, I could see widespread advisory level light to moderate snows and gusty winds (local squalls) for a period of 6-12 hrs well to the southwest of the surface low as it moves into northern ME and southern Quebec. 

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I still think commute could suck, even with an inch of slop. May end up needing advisories anyway. 

We’ll see, I’ll have all night to monitor trends.

Yeah if it comes in as a quick burst at like 10 or 11z forget it. 12z GFS looked a tick earlier with onset to me. 

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GYX seems less impressed with the gfs warm streak.  They've warned my zone and points north, while just to the south is advisory.  P&C adds to 5-11", but the probability numbers have a hiccup, with Farmington still at 13% for under 1" while places south and east have a much lower number.  Of course, the site still labels that product as "experimental".  ;)

Given the above, my guess for our low elevation location at the south edge of the warned area is 4-6" followed by some IP/ZR, and maybe a skiff of flakes on the backside.  Worst conditions appear to be during my morning commute.  Discretion is the better part of valor.

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7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

GYX seems less impressed with the gfs warm streak.  They've warned my zone and points north, while just to the south is advisory.  P&C adds to 5-11", but the probability numbers have a hiccup, with Farmington still at 13% for under 1" while places south and east have a much lower number.  Of course, the site still labels that product as "experimental".  ;)

Given the above, my guess for our low elevation location at the south edge of the warned area is 4-6" followed by some IP/ZR, and maybe a skiff of flakes on the backside.  Worst conditions appear to be during my morning commute.  Discretion is the better part of valor.

The probabilities haven’t been updated yet, but they did have a smaller spread near the coast, which is why the probabilities for at least 1” are higher.

Moral of the story, I still don’t like this product.

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