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December 12, 2017 - Late Bloomer Coastal


Baroclinic Zone

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7 hours ago, Whineminster said:

And it's the king at sniffing out CAD so that's not good 

Call me crazy, but I actually think it's been horse crap lately with CAD.

Maybe it's just how we ingest it to our workstations, but it warms the BL way too quickly. The GFS actually holds onto CAD better than the NAM now. The downscaled NAM performs better in my opinion (difference of an 18z temp Tuesday of 29 (NAM3) or 36 (NAM12) for Dryslot for instance). 

My choice is usually the RGEM, followed by some of the hi-res stuff as we enter that window. Rarely is the front broad and gradually transitioning from above to below freezing, it's usually pretty sharp. That's what is hard to model/forecast.

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Call me crazy, but I actually think it's been horse crap lately with CAD.

Maybe it's just how we ingest it to our workstations, but it warms the BL way too quickly. The GFS actually holds onto CAD better than the NAM now. The downscaled NAM performs better in my opinion (difference of an 18z temp Tuesday of 29 (NAM3) or 36 (NAM12) for Dryslot for instance). 

My choice is usually the RGEM, followed by some of the hi-res stuff as we enter that window. Rarely is the front broad and gradually transitioning from above to below freezing, it's usually pretty sharp. That's what is hard to model/forecast.

Yes.

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2 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Yea, it makes sense what ALY is saying and also what you are saying. I kind of mentioned it in the NNE thread, I could see some of the favored east slopes locations doing well.  Following up to what PF said--it be nice to have some detailed orographic forecasts, I know its tough with NWS offices, they kind of have to paint a broad brush sometimes and cant pin point every orographic nuance through the whole service area--Im guessing that takes time and money.

You know your local climo saying you don't do well on SE winds, same here. So, when I see 8-12, I expect lower taking into account local climo biases.  But yea, maybe if there was a way to have a more detailed forecast or mapping tool.  I'm sure if OceanStWx was around he could comment on it.

GAZPACHO is a script using GIS to map our snowfall reports. What ALY has been doing is separate snow events into flow regimes (4 quadrants (NW, NE, SE, SW), and 3 different speeds for each quad - 12 total possibilities). They can look at their forecast (usually when headlines are officially issued) vs. observed to figure out biases. 

I'm not entirely convinced that their low bias in the southern Greens is partly because of CAD on SE flow regimes. In the opposite scenario (NW flow) they have a low bias on the upwind slopes. No surprise there.

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8 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

this really is a climo appropriate event and it is nice to see the places which should get crushed (nne) get what really is rightfully theirs...sne can only luck out so many times 

If you want to reference regression to the mean, the past several Decembers have been atrocious for snowfall.

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you want to reference regression to the mean, the past several Decembers have been atrocious for snowfall.

there is still plenty of December left for sne to get another 3 to 6 or so inches to bring them to roughly normal for Dec snow but the kinds of storms that bring a foot to the ski areas after a mix or rain here have been so sparse for well over a decade

 

take away the localized upslope events and bigger nne events can be counted practically on one hand in the last decade, i want to include the northern half of cne too

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RGEM keeps 2M temps in Mass from Hippy and points W and SW (along with extreme northern ORH county) below freezing the entire time.  Looks like the rest of NE hovers around 35.  If I can eek out the 4-6" that BOX is forecasting, it'll be a huge victory in the face of the march to warmer.

I'm glad I'm not at Pit2 for the 33* rain that's depicted there.  Ugh.

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9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The one positive i see for this system is that there is a timely high pressure that develops north of Maine later tonite.

I dunno wether this is gonna be the reason for a C.A.D.revival today on models and wether this effects any last moment bullish effects in seeing a semblance of a surface reflection south.

 

You can also track that in the wind fields because it sneaks in arctic boundary south into Maine tonight. Unfortunately, that really does not make it into southern New England.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You can also track that in the wind fields because it sneaks in arctic boundary south into Maine tonight. Unfortunately, that really does not make it into southern New England.

GFS 925 mb ageostrophic flow is like due north through ME, right to the coast. Until about 21z when it flips to E.

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Sure, expect that low level CAD to overperform, but that’s a sub 990 primary running into southern VT. Hard to see how most of us excluding  northern VT, Northern NH and Northern Maine don’t get flooded with warmth in this, verbatim. I think the initial low level CAD is likely underdone, but the eventual low level WAD is likely also underdone with that primary track/intensity...

We really need the secondary to pop sooner and further southeast to prevent a torch outside of the aforementioned areas...Not saying it can’t still trend that way, but we are running out of time. 

At least there is high confidence that this will be a 6”+ snowfall for most resort locales in the greens and whites.

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