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December 12, 2017 - Late Bloomer Coastal


Baroclinic Zone

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's pretty cold Tuesday morning. I'm always skeptical of how fast models try erode it in the interior...and the further north you go, the harder. Seen it a million times where models have temps of like 22F at 12z and try to turn ORH to 40F by 18z when the isobars have a CAD signal...you can toss those numbers in the trash heap when that happens...on the coast? Sure. But not interior. Still need to figure out the surface reflection though because it makes a difference.  

 

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s gonna be a massive CF near 95 up there. Classic. Probably 20 degree difference on either side.

 

31 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just read there AFD, There thinking a colder air mass will be in place except immediate coast.

The money question, for me personally, is if Dover is far enough away from the coast and be on the right side of CF along I-95. The snow gradient up NH 16 turnpike will be crazy.

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1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

If it's anything like the NAM, we may wish it didn't go past 36.

Meh, I would not get wrapped up in what it shows right now, Will already talked about the CAD and modeling no showing it until closer to the event, And i'm not going to sweat the Nam...........lol

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Meh, I would not get wrapped up in what it shows right now, Will already talked about the CAD and modeling no showing it until closer to the event, And i'm not going to sweat the Nam...........lol

I think there could be a more exteneded period glaze in n ORH co relative to current modeling, but I am cooked.

I didn't mention the ice threat last night, but will def. hit it in the final call tmw night.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there could be a more exteneded period glaze in n ORH co relative to current modeling, but I am cooked.

I didn't mention the ice threat last night, but will def. hit in the final call tmw night.

Yeah, You're in a tough spot for this one with that low track for snow.

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, maybe that map was posted pre-happy hour model runs. Let's see what transpires overnight but not good seeing models shift towards warm mid-level solutions this close to the event.  

It was posted at 3:30, so yes it was. And agreed. Slight tics north on the past few runs, not a good trend.

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13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Lol at Pittsfield in the 6-8" range, I don't think you will even see that at the top peaks of the Berkshires. 

18z GFS actually isn't that far off for those areas just north of ALB from the foothills of the Adirondacks across into SVT... the GFS has bullseyes of 10-11" in those areas with 5-6" Pittsfield/North Adams.

The ALY map just makes it look too widespread...I think there's more local variability there than the ALB map alludes to.

v9LeHXL.png

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