Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He mild up. Respect E-SE flow this time of year. We melt it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Question for you guys on ratios up here. Snowfall maps are based on 10:1 ratio. Like people have been pointing out CAD might over perform up here in inland C NH. Snow starts early in the day and we now have a snowpack. It would seem to me that at least at my higher elevation that the snow is going to have much better ratios than 10:1. People ask me "how much are we going to get"?. Even if I take the QPF verbatim on the models wouldn't you expect higher ratios in a situation like this, up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I prob would in your spot...but further west of you I might not. 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I prob would in your spot...but further west of you I might not. Yes... well west. Like rt 2 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Question for you guys on ratios up here. Snowfall maps are based on 10:1 ratio. Like people have been pointing out CAD might over perform up here in inland C NH. Snow starts early in the day and we now have a snowpack. It would seem to me that at least at my higher elevation that the snow is going to have much better ratios than 10:1. People ask me "how much are we going to get"?. Even if I take the QPF verbatim on the models wouldn't you expect higher ratios in a situation like this, up here? Ratios are mostly about lift and mid level temps. I haven't looked at cross sections up there but if you get good lift in the snow growth region then yeah, you could end up with 15 to 1 ratios or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He mild up. Respect E-SE flow this time of year. Exactly. The H5 and parent low going north causes that. Cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? ??? This kind of setup is in your wheelhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We melt it all Lol what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 This actually looks like a sort of rare set up where NW hills of c.t. crush Ne hills. Mesos show this well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol what? What do you have more of in your heart-fear or lust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We melt it all Or the meltdowns begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Hes not doing well preparing for a rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: ??? This kind of setup is in your wheelhouse Unfortunately the RGEM is a toaster bath hr 54 much can change. We wait until 12 Z tommorow for thermals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Hes not doing well preparing for a rainer I don’t know if you’re joking or not understanding the setup or what . Will told you earlier worst case it’s snow ice to drizzle to Dryslot and 30’s for a few hours pre cold front. No one is wiping out snowpack. Not even BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro has a nice little sfc reflection trying to squeeze underneath. Still best lift is North but it prob has a 2-3" thump for interior in the 495 region westward. yeah .. even just looking at the coarseness of the freebies you get an impression of some sort shenanigans like that... Folks should like the GGEM... That's ...like a pubic hair away from being a 4-6 hour lolly pop. Then, it has more of a proper NJ Model spin up doing an ACY to ACK job next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: What do you have more of in your heart-fear or lust? Fear is a good thing , it keeps you cautious, humble and aware. Lust is not it keeps you myopic and inattentive to danger signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 All said that Euro run refills the pack plus and has some serious cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t know if you’re joking or not understanding the setup or what . Will told you earlier worst case it’s snow ice to drizzle to Dryslot and 30’s for a few hours pre cold front. No one is wiping out snowpack. Not even BOS Unreadable Also Im Training some ladies hold on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 GYX hoisted a Watch for here on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Melt, melt, melt, melt, melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Melt, melt, melt, melt, melt. lot of that today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: GYX hoisted a Watch for here on Tuesday. Yup. We're included too. Grid has 3-5" down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Yup. We're included too. Grid has 3-5" down here. Just read there AFD, There thinking a colder air mass will be in place except immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Just read there AFD, There thinking a coder air mass will be in place except immediate coast. It's pretty cold Tuesday morning. I'm always skeptical of how fast models try erode it in the interior...and the further north you go, the harder. Seen it a million times where models have temps of like 22F at 12z and try to turn ORH to 40F by 18z when the isobars have a CAD signal...you can toss those numbers in the trash heap when that happens...on the coast? Sure. But not interior. Still need to figure out the surface reflection though because it makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's pretty cold Tuesday morning. I'm always skeptical of how fast models try erode it in the interior...and the further north you go, the harder. Seen it a million times where models have temps of like 22F at 12z and try to turn ORH to 40F by 18z when the isobars have a CAD signal...you can toss those numbers in the trash heap when that happens...on the coast? Sure. But not interior. Still need to figure out the surface reflection though because it makes a difference. That’s gonna be a massive CF near 95 up there. Classic. Probably 20 degree difference on either side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It's pretty cold Tuesday morning. I'm always skeptical of how fast models try erode it in the interior...and the further north you go, the harder. Seen it a million times where models have temps of like 22F at 12z and try to turn ORH to 40F by 18z when the isobars have a CAD signal...you can toss those numbers in the trash heap when that happens...on the coast? Sure. But not interior. Still need to figure out the surface reflection though because it makes a difference. Yeah, Models seem to underestimate the CAD until we get closer in and then start adjusting inside 36 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 46 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This actually looks like a sort of rare set up where NW hills of c.t. crush Ne hills. Mesos show this well Sounds like my childhood. Litchfield county for the win then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Forecast highs here on tuesday is upper 20's off a low of 14°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Was surprised to see a Winter Storm Watch up here... I'm thinking the main synoptic snow is Advisory level. Backside upslope though looks solid with those temps, that's high ratio backside fluff but there's like a 12-hour dry slot between the synoptic forcing and terrain initiated stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Forecast highs here on tuesday is upper 20's off a low of 14°F. It's 38F here, which is above freezing the last time I checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 It will be an advisory level event here but no complaints. It will be nice to see some on the Colchester Picnic Tables at St. Mikes ;). I didn't look and see if it would favor blocked upslope (which is what pushed us over the top for Pi Day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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