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December 12, 2017 - Late Bloomer Coastal


Baroclinic Zone

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26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Pit2 is in the drivers seat.

I think Pit1 will be doing pretty well in this as well--I'm thinking 6+.

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks good. Gonna be a good CF band too near the coast. Somewhere will get more than 6-8.

That's what Pit2 is going to be flirting with.  Don't get caught on the wrong side of that line!

 

EDIT:

Yikes, 12z NAM is coming in warm, enjoy PF.

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31 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to have to see where the track ends up, But 25-50 miles could mean a lot.

Yeah esp for both interior SNE and coastal S ME regions. We could either get like a quick 4" burst here and then be locked into 29F all day with a secondary track out over the Cape or we could get just a dusting before flipping to rain and dryslottimg and then spiking to 46F before the cold front if the storm tracks over HFD-MHT. 

For southern Maine it's def gonna be about the warm tongue and how far west it shoots. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah esp for both interior SNE and coastal S ME regions. We could either get like a quick 4" burst here and then be locked into 29F all day with a secondary track out over the Cape or we could get just a dusting before flipping to rain and dryslottimg and then spiking to 46F before he cold front of the storm tracks over HFD-MHT. 

For southern Maine it's def gonna be about the warm tongue and how far west it shoots. 

Looks like i may be on the fence here so i wouldn't mine a more southerly track.

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

You thinking warm/mixing even in Ayer?

Well... I'm not totally certain - but, the percentages are pretty low that we'd get through that untainted in the least, and it wouldn't be shocking if we penetrated rain pretty damn far inland given the recent 'general' appeal/blend of the models.  The one caveat, as Scott pointed out, is that there could be icing in climo spots. 

Excluding the off-chance that the models, et al, would be 'that' far off in their handling of the western ridge over North America, and that's important... this thing really is forced to move along that northern route with it's bulk mechanics.  If the western ridge were taller and more instructive on the downstream wave-length arguments etc... than it might dig more and take a more favorable route for bringing the axis of concern S; however, even if so, we still have the surplus velocity issue in the entirety of the flow, and that would absorb some of said mechanics...leading to a different set of headaches.

Bottom line, with that northern route presently favored, there's really no stopping a warm tongue of air from really cutting NW across the region.  There's actually "less" logic in the idea that the NAM (for example) is 'likely too warm'. The 800 mb level is still cold ... it's that 900-ish range just off the deck that infernos with that SW flow

Again ...that's all predicated on the assumption of northern-esque route with those mid levels...

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Anyone want to guess why the energy isn't consolidated with a negatively tilted trough and a strong arctic vort max and Pacific jet max present?  I mean the dynamics are right there and perhaps the models are pushing the baroclinic zone to far east for the development of a secondary low off the NJ coastline due to convective issues

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8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Anyone want to guess why the energy isn't consolidated with a negatively tilted trough and a strong arctic vort max and Pacific jet max present?  I mean the dynamics are right there and perhaps the models are pushing the baroclinic zone to far east for the development of a secondary low off the NJ coastline due to convective issues

Ha ha... you sound like you are attempting to simultaneously ask the question ...while questioning the motives of the models -

We get that it's frustrating, but it's actually not that hard to see and probably more importantly, 'accept' why that is...

The western N/A ridge is amplified, but not enough..If it were, it would drive a steeper coupled wave-length over the eastern U.S. .. That in turn slows down the total evolution of everything... Slower would cause the n-stream to subsume the southern stream more fully... The way it is now, there's just enough "flatness" to the flow to remain more progressive,... and the S-stream zips out ahead - simply put, they are too different wave-lengths ... Interesting, their respective 'timing' is actually pretty good... Just like this last event ... but the spatial relationships were off due to how they are integrated in the large synoptic cinema -

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's pretty darn cold at the onset early Tuesday. It could def be aburst of snow to a period of ZR inland before maybe dryslotting. Might take a little longer to erode the surface inland than some guidance wants to. 

 

Yeah, Scott mentioned that awhile ago ... that seems more likely to me than getting through that thing untainted... but, you never know.

I have seen snow cut off ...then you get a weird smell of summer air at 42 Deg...then the polar boundary crashes back through and you flash -   ...meanwhile, climo zones are 32.4 F and holding on to a modest coating of glazing... Those spots spike for an hour after said front cuts through in a drip fest,... before everyone sags below freezing and black ice hikes a few insurance premiums... I love how the insurance industry validates hiking peoples rates based upon it being "their fault" that there is weather.

Whatever happens down here...  It looks like Maine over to N. VT could take a pounding from this thing as it stands now

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Just now, powderfreak said:

 

Yeah I really like where this has been heading the past few runs.  Juicing up a bit.

Naturally I'll be in NYC for some holiday family stuff on Tuesday/Wednesday so it'll definitely dump back in Stowe. 

 

Can you drag the boundary down there when you go?

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