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December 12, 2017 - Late Bloomer Coastal


Baroclinic Zone

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EURO is running....blogging on this one now as I await the EURO, but not feeling it.

Once the modeling pulled that crap of trying to develop it over or just north of us a few days ago, I was out on a major impactor.

This situation is just a mess because not only are you trying to "arctic jet" your way to a faster development, but you also have an initial warm surge to contend with. 

Big events usually aren't messy....if you need a calculus equation to resolve a solution that will give you a lot of snow, then you probably aren't getting a lot of snow.

Period.

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I'm feeling pretty good about this one......certainly not a block buster, but I think GC could achieve warning criteria.  We'll see if I still think that  after the 12z runs.

P/C is already calling for 1-2" just through Monday night.  Regardless of the snow amounts, we'll be feeling the progged 19* highs on Wed and Thurs.  Not bad for late autumn weather.

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5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO is running....blogging on this one now as I await the EURO, but not feeling it.

Once the modeling pulled that crap of trying to develop it over or just north of us a few days ago, I was out on a major impactor.

This situation is just a mess because not only are you trying to "arctic jet" your way to a faster development, but you also have an initial warm surge to contend with. 

Big events usually aren't messy....if you need a calculus equation to resolve a solution that will give you a lot of snow, then you probably aren't getting a lot of snow.

Period.

 

Sig-worthy.

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh I didn’t mean no warmup or rain. Just not days of 50’s and 60’s like had been mentioned .. hopefully just a day or two of 40’s

Well, it was 'mentioned' because that's what had been modeled for  several runs by multiple models in both op and ensembles.  Hopefully, the evolution to a muted relaxation is sustained.  In the meantime, let's enjoy deep winter.

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