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December 9th 2017 Crusha Obs


Rjay

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Down to light snow or flurries on the UWS. This banding shows how far we still have to go with snow forecasting. West of the city that band will overpreform. The city looks to be right around forecast and western LI below. Unless that band pivots or a new one developes western LI will be the big loser 

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Down to light snow or flurries on the UWS. This banding shows how far we still have to go with snow forecasting. West of the city that band will overpreform. The city looks to be right around forecast and western LI below. Unless that band pivots or a new one developes western LI will be the big loser 

That band is moving east. Itll get to the city 

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6 minutes ago, doncat said:

Snow lightened up currently with 3" on the ground. Temp 31 degrees.

Same over here across the river Woodbridge NJ. Think that's it? Or should we expect a little more later? So many people from so many areas here it gets a little confusing; surprised to see people well west of me with the same amounts...

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3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Same over here across the river Woodbridge NJ. Think that's it? Or should we expect a little more later? So many people from so many areas here it gets a little confusing; surprised to see people well west of me with the same amounts...

That band should move over you soon. Its been heavy here the past 10 minutes

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Just now, swataz said:

Upton was bullish even after the six hour delay in the start of things. Now that the banding has set up unfavorably, either they see something we don’t, or they aren’t willing to give up the ghost.

Band should swing through all of LI later. Don't give up yet.

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It appears that Long Island on the whole is underperforming in terms of snowfall. Am I misreading things?

No.. about 1.5"... South shore Western Suffolk... been mostly light snow... Now we are in a dry slot... east end south fork might be changing to rain....

Most lift was city West... Surprising given how far south the storm is...

Even Philly getting more than us given what I am seeing on tv with army vs navy.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

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5 minutes ago, tdenzler said:

No.. about 1.5"... South shore Western Suffolk... been mostly light snow... Now we are in a dry slot... east end south fork might be changing to rain....

Most lift was city West... Surprising given how far south the storm is...

Even Philly getting more than us given what I am seeing on tv with army vs navy.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
 

There's still time for you guys to make it up. Maybe not 6" but 3 or 4

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2.5" on grassy surfaces, 3"+ on cars that have been sitting and elevated surfaces, streets are completely covered but I suspect that the main streets are still wet in the traffic areas with shoulders and centers snowcovered but that will change in the next few minutes as the temp has dropped below 30 now. Flake size is much smaller than it was earlier but visibility is about half of what it was at less than 2 blocks now. Looks like 4-5" is reasonable and that's what was forecasted as of late yesterday.

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Radar looks good. The highest levels of frontogenesis are aligned with the storm's movement, so there will be almost a training effect with any banding that develops. Looks like the area is line for a solid moderate event. Due to the nature of strong banding, some areas to the NW are experiencing subsidence, like the White Plains area.

Now, let's look at some upper level data. This data is taken from the 12z NAM for KLGA. Looks like there will be some decent lift in the atmosphere, so parcels will be able to rise somewhat easily and saturate. The column itself is already very moist, as saturation is occurring at around 600mb. This is conducive for heavier precipitation. 

5a2c45a672835_omega1291712znam.thumb.png.6948a8ccf929a2a0cb0fca9ba4929ba7.png5a2c45b328281_RH1291712znam.thumb.png.56163feca5b94ba8a159385b3bd17b07.png

 

Based on the 700mb vorticity on the 18z NAM, it appears that the area of elevated lift will move farther east as the storm progresses up the coast, sweeping through the NYC area and onto LI. This would produce one strong band with high snowfall rates embedded. There also looks to be high levels of frontogenesis aloft, which will also work to bring heavier snowfall rates to the region.

 

namconus_z700_vort_neus_10.png

5a2c45995cb17_700mbfrontogenesis12917.gif.1bfcd5ad79049307b9182b9dba906a58.gif

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