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Dec 8/9 Obs and discussion (Showme's) Storm


showmethesnow

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Just now, Cobalt said:

Do you still have faith in 4-6" for DC? I think it may be possible, even more so for NW since it seems like a band will set up there

I've heard of 2-4, maybe even 3-5 for DC, but have not heard of 4-6. System is pretty dynamic, I would not be surprised if DC did get that much by tonight.

 

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1 minute ago, rcflyermd68 said:

it was never supposed to start till 5 0r 6am, then get heaviest after sunrise till early aftn, what is the problem??

Pt. 2 of the storm is taking longer to materialize. Models have seemed to also make the storm last longer too, up to 0z Sunday. Storm should be just as West as predicted, but the longer it takes to materialize, the less precip we get out of it. Looks like holes are filling in on radar

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5 minutes ago, rcflyermd68 said:

it was never supposed to start till 5 0r 6am, then get heaviest after sunrise till early aftn, what is the problem??

Either way, this should have some good precip hours. Like I said in a previous post, the most intense precip should compensate for the lost hours of snowfall. Maybe 3-5" for DC, and I think little jackpot will be I-95 and points West for possibly 5". It's out there, but it's colder, higher elevation (by a bit), and heavy snow band might set up NW

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Well that area of precip that was supposed to move into SE VA did. It did develop northwest. But now, it is moving off to the east.

Maybe I should hit the bed? Hope against hope that when I get up in a few hours I'll look outside at steady snow.

One thing this storm has done very well to us I-95'ers: It has been one frackin' big TEASE.

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Yeah, I remember that. Then suddenly it set up then poured snow and the winds blew it all over, like a milkshake froth. There was so much blowing and drifting that it was damn tough to get snow depth readings. I'd shovel my driveway and an hour later it was drifted over again lol

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Found in the March 2009 Capital Weather Gang article

"What happened was that the initial surge of moisture got eaten away by dry air coming in from the north. So even though radar showed precipitation surging through central Virginia Sunday afternoon, it hit a wall north and west Fredericksburg, Va. Then, even as the precipitation moved in, it was so light that some of the snowflakes forming in the cold air aloft melted near the surface (where temperatures were above freezing) causing a mix of rain/sleet and little accumulation. Had it been precipitating harder (like it was to the east), the air would've cooled via evaporation, we wouldn't have had rain, and the initial snow would've started sticking earlier. None of the models we use as a tool in forecasting predicted the dry air intrusion until it was practically happening. In the future, this is something we'll have to analyze more closely for an incoming storm of this sort."

Seems like the dry air thing never has been handed well

Bonus: more from the article

MISTAKE: INCORRECTLY REDUCED SNOW AMOUNTS WEST OF I-95 MID-STORM

 

Around 9:15 p.m., when the snow had temporarily stopped from the District and points west and not accumulated more than a sloppy half inch or so, we decided to lower accumulations for those areas. Because we had expected at least a couple inches of snow in these spots by then and the radar to the west and northwest was underwhelming, it seemed like the obvious decision. We didn't throw in the towel entirely though, noting the redevelopment of snow to the southwest as well as the likelihood of more snow late at night associated with an "energetic upper low." But we did drop accumulation estimates to 2-5" (from 4-8") in the immediate metro area and 1-3" north and west of the Beltway (from either 2-4" or 4-8"). That downward adjustment of 2-3 inches was unnecessary.

As it turned out, the "energetic upper low" (the same feature had produced thundersnow in Atlanta) dropped a couple more inches than even we expected. That made up for the lack of snow along and west of I-95 early on.

 

This seems to have so many similarities with this storm. "Same feature that had produced thundersnow in Atlanta dropped a couple more inches than even we expected. That made up for the lack of snow along and west of I-95 early on"

I hope this is the case here. You never know, but this seems like a common theme with these types of nor'easters. Don't be too surprised

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Looks as if the overnight runs backed down a little on snowfall through the region for whatever that is worth. Low is in the process of forming off of OBX/SE coast at this time and what it does with that in the next 6 hours or so will be key. We want to see stronger pressure drops there with a more consolidated and semi rounded look vs a strung out, elongated look of pressure drops where there are possibly two areas of lower pressures combating each other. The differences on how it handles this low will also have somewhat of an impact on its future track.

So though the models backed down somewhat on snowfall I might take that with some caution considering that the models are having some issues with how they are handling the low formation off the coast. And it wouldn't take much of a change in that regard to have noticeable impacts on the outcome through our region.

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For those that wish to follow the pressure drops. This map can be somewhat confusing to some but what we want to see generally is the pretty colors SE of the outer banks deepen and attain a more rounded look.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur

Current pressure drops

Ignore the pic below for some reason it doesn't want to load the current one.

3 hr Pressure Change Contour - Current

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