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2017-2018 Winter Observations


Carvers Gap

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1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I know this probably doesn't belong in this thread but relates to our current storm, HRRR keeps showing a nice pulse up the great valley around 7PM tonight, looking at its snow total output looks like most of the HRRR snow totals show coming from that pulse this evening into early night.

I have been noticing that too, Shawn.  It's been a consistent feature in the HRRR.  Looking forward to that falling at night (if it's real), should stick to everything once the sun goes down..............

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4 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I know this probably doesn't belong in this thread but relates to our current storm, HRRR keeps showing a nice pulse up the great valley around 7PM tonight, looking at its snow total output looks like most of the HRRR snow totals show coming from that pulse this evening into early night.

Yep, I've been keeping an eye on that.  MRX has snow tapering off by then.  They've been slowly adjusting to the modeling all day, I guess they'll get around to extending the snow chances to early morning before it's over with.

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18 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I know this probably doesn't belong in this thread but relates to our current storm, HRRR keeps showing a nice pulse up the great valley around 7PM tonight, looking at its snow total output looks like most of the HRRR snow totals show coming from that pulse this evening into early night.

I was just about to say that the HRRR just continues to put out amazing snow totals on that second impulse overnight.

IMG_4739.JPG

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3 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

I was just about to say that the HRRR just continues to put out amazing snow totals on that second impulse overnight.

IMG_4739.JPG

Folks in the NC thread have been talking about that all day.  They think the last push of this storm is gonna Be impressive.  Models continue with o trend that way also.  The timing of that last push will work perfect for you all in at east Tn, mountain areas should see some impressive totals for sure.  It always amazes me how these storms evolve and increase/decrease performance over a 12 hour period!!

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The radar seems to be looking a little better to the south west so maybe I will catch the edge of the precipitation.  It is going to be close for people in West Knoxville.   The East of the county is looking good but it is great seeing something this early. Congrats to all who are getting snow!  

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Both the 21z RAP and HRRR are still showing the 2 additional surges this evening and late tonight.  I don't know if it'll amount to much over here in west Knoxville or not.  I'm happy to have gotten a nice snow shower today so I'll call it a win.  Anything else is a bonus.  Congrats to all who saw snow!

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9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Got a pic from ETSU, looked like about 1.5 to 2 inches on the ground there. I think there might be 2-3 more inches east of 81 down to East of Noog.

John please give us a heads up before you head down to Nooga to visit family again.  I'd like to be able to stock up on salt for the dumping of snow we'll certainly get along I-40 and north when you're away!

:guitar:

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Cough...wow things went quiet. Anyway the models have continued to support a final wave of snow passing through the far eastern forum area. With the significant loss of activity the development of the low by the carolinas (at least from what others have mentioned) will determine if the precipitation shield is revived and back builds northwest. I'd say the next three hours will determine if the outcome pans out. Oh, and to make the post legitimate the current temperature is 29F with current winds from the SW. :lol:

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Congrats to everyone who saw snow!  My office in Erwin, TN saw snow almost time the entire day yesterday. Picked up around 2.5 inches there.  Likely added more overnight and into this morning.

North JC had around an inch yesterday.  A small stripe of snow did finally develop over parts of east and northeast TN early early this AM, but the HRRR missed on such an expansive and long duration back build that was supposed to have started around 8PM last night!

 

Even though this winter storm missed a large part of the TN Valley, it was a historic storm in parts of the Deep South and gulf coast region!  10" just north and west of Atlanta, thunder snow around New Orleans, heavy snow in northern Mexico and parts of south Texas, light snow reported in Pensacola, FL.....  all before the winter solstice.

Not to mention some of the western NC mountain folk getting crushed!  Really happy for those guys and what this early season snow (and pattern) will do for their ski season!! 

I hope this pattern is one that repeats a couple of times as we head into true winter.....should be more fun ahead if it does.

 

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Well I'm not going to lie, I'm disappointed, the HRRR pulled me in. For hours models showed snowfall and remained consistent, technically in fact the radar even verified it! Except, nothing not a flake made it to the ground! I must have set a new world record for the most snowfall sublimating over me in a single storm! :arrowhead: If such as a single flake hits the ground from the clipper it will be a miracle! Total Accumulated Snowfall for December 8-9, 2017 at 7:00 A.M. 0.00" Seriously though congrats to those who did in fact see snow! especially those along the gulf coast! :guitar:

It's a lie!.png

Webp.net-compress-image.jpg

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1 hour ago, BlunderStorm said:

Well I'm not going to lie, I'm disappointed, the HRRR pulled me in. For hours models showed snowfall and remained consistent, technically in fact the radar even verified it! Except, nothing not a flake made it to the ground! I must have set a new world record for the most snowfall sublimating over me in a single storm! :arrowhead: If such as a single flake hits the ground from the clipper it will be a miracle! Total Accumulated Snowfall for December 8-9, 2017 at 7:00 A.M. 0.00" Seriously though congrats to those who did in fact see snow! especially those along the gulf coast! :guitar:

 

 

Well, you are in a great spot most storms....  I know the frustration with not getting hit.  There have been numerous times in the last decade where SW Va was getting mauled by heavy snow and northeast TN was in a battle to stay mixed precip. Glad you are in our forum and hope the next one hits you squarely.  :-)

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Picked up about 3/4 in of new snow overnight. Total between yesterday and last night was right around 1in. Yes, I was one of those who also succumbed to the HRRR. It sure looked great, but when it wasn't verifying around 7-9 PM last night, I began to even doubt any of it would verify. Woke up pleasantly surprised. Still, it's early in the winter season for sure. I'll consider an inch this time of year a win. 

Maybe we'll all have a big storm roll through later this month or next month. 

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