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December 8/9th Storm - STORM MODE THREAD


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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

 


This is absolutely the type of setup where globals are going to handle the moisture feed better, even close in. Meso’s can be used when precip is knocking to potentially determine banding. HRRR I wouldn’t even use until snow is happening tbh


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Exactly. I've tried pointing this out a couple times. There are small waves running the elongated low pressure off the coast. All a meso has to do is screw up a wave with its high resolution and it will effect the entire run. The globals are big heavyweights imho. So much so that we can almost ignore the mesos right now and have high confidence/accuracy. 

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I'm super busy and way behind on the discussion so please forgive me if this has been said...but when using the high res short range models (especially when they are in catch up mode) the best indicator they may continue to trend west is how they made even more significant jumps west down south with the heavy qpf in western NC and eastern TN. When those changes fade over time it might still be correcting and that west trend in the short term could correct agaun 6 hours out next run this precip adjusts west further north in each run. I suck at explaining this but when I see them continue to adjust more in the short range then fade later on I see room for additional shifts in subsequent runs. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm super busy and way behind on the discussion so please forgive me if this has been said...but when using the high res short range models (especially when they are in catch up mode) the best indicator they may continue to trend west is how they made even more significant jumps west down south with the heavy qpf in western NC and eastern TN. When those changes fade over time it might still be correcting and that west trend in the short term could correct agaun 6 hours out next run this precip adjusts west further north in each run. I suck at explaining this but when I see them continue to adjust more in the short range then fade later on I see room for additional shifts in subsequent runs. 

when you toggle between the current run and last run of the rgem, the really heavy stuff off the coast made a nice jump west, but the area you mentioned is pretty similar

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017120812&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=626

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Probably been discussed but this is a seems like a pretty similar set up to the coastal last year that dropped 7 inches in southern maryland and about 1.5 in DC.  During that storm I remember the RGEM had us at like 0.5-0.7 the night before and we were all excited whereas the globals were much less.  Just another reason to probably roll with the global consensus.    

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

If you toggle the RGEM QPF panels you can see the .75 line move NW and the .40/.50 lines move SE. IMHO- that's just noise and not meaningful. RGEM looks just like the globals right now. 

 

like you said yesterday, it's getting close to nowcasting time. looks like a solid 1-3"+ here and a really nice start time (morning) after a day of clouds. might actually see some street stickage at least in the burbs. looks like a pulse-y system so my guess is the moderate bands would be the ones that get us to the 2-4" criteria. the light stuff might struggle to accumulate, i think. 

very solid start to winter. early december snow is a luxury here.

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9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Trust me, your fluff will make up for it. It always happens.

I think once you get south of Severna Park, and especially Annapolis, will be where the extra qpf makes a difference

Yea the rgem has stabilized and changes from 6z were just noise. Doesn't mean it's right but it's not in "correction mode" imo. Many of the other high res models that were being posted earlier are. 

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

 

like you said yesterday, it's getting close to nowcasting time. looks like a solid 1-3"+ here and a really nice start time (morning) after a day of clouds. might actually see some street stickage at least in the burbs. looks like a pulse-y system so my guess is the moderate bands would be the ones that get us to the 2-4" criteria. the light stuff might struggle to accumulate, i think. 

very solid start to winter. early december snow is a luxury here.

Going with a blend of the 12z globals as a final forecast will have a high chance at verifying imho. Globals rarely blow short range forecasts. Mesos do it often. Not in every case of course and right now the meso's do look pretty much exactly like the globals. Once the 12z suite is done it's all about nowcasting. Well, that and HRRR freakouts and such. 

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

toggle between current and previous run and it does the same thing as the rgem

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017120812&fh=36

My take from 12Z thus far is a tightening of the gradient.....heavier banding notable farther NW with similar decline in totals over a relative short distance.

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