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December 8-9 Holiday snow event Observations


Wow

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2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

A bit miffed, the heaviest band refuses to pivot this way, some places out west of here will end up with a foot, so far only 2" here (more than that has probably fallen but with warmer temps and that two hours of rain make it hard to tell).

 

You are definitely going into a dry slot until the upper trof pivots across.  I seems to me that band is weakening and lifting out of ATL.  Most models at least hinted at the 02-07Z period being iffy with the band swinging through thereafter with the upper trof.  They key now I think is to watch the area near Mobile Bay and WRN FL and hope no major convection starts going.

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Airport I think only got 4.  I have heard some mets over the years at conferences etc. say they think the measurement was bad but I think the south side towns only had 2-3 so it may not have been far off.  The north side got over 8 I believe

We had 14" in Cherokee county in 1993.

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Airport I think only got 4.  I have heard some mets over the years at conferences etc. say they think the measurement was bad but I think the south side towns only had 2-3 so it may not have been far off.  The north side got over 8 I believe

Interesting.  Coworkers were talking about 2' being dumped on them in 1993.  That's waaaaay over 8", so I'm gonna chalk it up to trying to impress the new coworker :)  Thanks for the figures.   That CC zone set up in the wrong place for the "official" measurements in this event.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

Once again...the differences between the city of Charlotte and the northern burbs are accentuated.   

GOT to have cold air in place. Depending on the cold getting south of I-85 while an event is in progress NEVER works out. Not even if every single model in the world shows it. It WILL NOT happen.

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

You are definitely going into a dry slot until the upper trof pivots across.  I seems to me that band is weakening and lifting out of ATL.  Most models at least hinted at the 02-07Z period being iffy with the band swinging through thereafter with the upper trof.  They key now I think is to watch the area near Mobile Bay and WRN FL and hope no major convection starts going.

HRRR says we get another 2" with snow picking up again about 05Z not ending until about 12Z.

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1 minute ago, SteveVa said:

Can we just dispel the notion that this system is such an overachiever? Multiple models, especially mesoscale, predicted a similar outcome throughout multiple runs. It's just that nobody believed their output.

I don't think Houston TX was expecting 6-8" of snow!? So it did over achieve!

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4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I don't think Houston TX was expecting 6-8" of snow!? So it did over achieve!

Yeah, Houston didn't expect 6-8"...and they were right in not expecting that much because officially they got 0.7"

I'm not trying to take anything away from this spectacular (and possibly historic for some!) storm.

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11 minutes ago, phobos said:

And today people I work with didn’t believe we would get anything here and we’re still complaining since last year we were supposed to get 6-10 based on the models.  

Maybe people will one day realize it’s a lose lose situation and get on wth their lives. 

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1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

And today people I work with didn’t believe we would get anything here and we’re still complaining since last year we were supposed to get 6-10 based on the models.  

Maybe people will one day realize it’s a lose lose situation and get on wth their lives. 

Maybe the models do not need to be made public. Only govt agencies and TV mets should have access to them. 

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2 minutes ago, jshetley said:

Maybe the models do not need to be made public. Only govt agencies and TV mets should have access to them. 

Mets forecasted 6-10” last year on tv and it was a cold rain here with some sleet in the beginning.  The people I work with have never looked at a weather model.  All they know is what the people on tv said.  Even if models weren’t available they’d still be mad.  

Some people just like to complain. 

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