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December 8/9 wave


psuhoffman

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NAM has decided to tick NW again as well. 

I'll tell you one feature that has been rather consistant, and its that vort over the Great Lakes.  I know best case it dives in and joins the party to turn the trough more negative, but from days ago, I thought he evolution would be purely southern stream due to spacing and dissconect from said low.  Unfortunately that GLL has remained close enough to kick, but not not enough to help.  To me that is the biggest reason this storm isnt gaining latitude.

Nut

edit-i know this one is largely cooked except for SE locals (and Im rooting for yas), but im just having fun, cause its all we got right now...

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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

NAM has decided to tick NW again as well. 

I'll tell you one feature that has been rather consistant, and its that vort over the Great Lakes.  I know best case it dives in and joins the party to turn the trough more negative, but from days ago, I thought he evolution would be purely southern stream due to spacing and dissconect from said low.  Unfortunately that GLL has remained close enough to kick, but not not enough to help.  To me that is the biggest reason this storm isnt gaining latitude.

Nut

 

Damn mistakes on the lakes! lol 

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22 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

NAM has decided to tick NW again as well. 

I'll tell you one feature that has been rather consistant, and its that vort over the Great Lakes.  I know best case it dives in and joins the party to turn the trough more negative, but from days ago, I thought he evolution would be purely southern stream due to spacing and dissconect from said low.  Unfortunately that GLL has remained close enough to kick, but not not enough to help.  To me that is the biggest reason this storm isnt gaining latitude.

Nut

edit-i know this one is larely cooked except for SE locals (and Im rotting for yas), but im just having fun, cause its all we got right now...

you're talking about the 6z NAM, no?

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

At this point, yeah

I mean it is encouraging somewhat.  although I am not sure I am inclined to believe it still at least for my area.  I think you have a shot at seeing some flakes.  west of 95 only if there is a miracle

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z NAM gets snow in to the I-95 corridor hrs 48-54

I think...I think its the best NAM run in the last 6 or so..one or two more ticks NW would be a miracle...I think this run just gets to 95 based on that look...like if you got off the exit and headed anywhere west you are done

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

I think...I think its the best NAM run in the last 6 or so..one or two more ticks NW would be a miracle...I think this run just gets to 95 based on that look...like if you got off the exit and headed anywhere west you are done

I'm not sure it would be a miracle. It's going to be what it's going to be. Reminds me when I was a kid growing up in S Jersey and I would make minute by minute checks of the temperature when we would be in a rain to snow scenario.

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z NAM total QPF map has 0.1 line west of I-95... 0.5 line isn't that far away, its in S MD (all through 60 hrs)

since you have an early look, and TT isnt there yet, are you seeing another tick similar to 06z?

I know its the NAM, but it is coming into range...even though it often needs glasses :sun:

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24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

At this point, yeah

Like you I am skeptical, but its not like we haven't seen shifts like this over and over and over again.  Our years of disappointment and climo make us more apt to believe in the threat of negative model trends then positive ones.  Cuts down on the misery to our souls.  But its not like I will be absolutely shocked if this thing came back from the dead and continued shifting NW today and tomorrow. 

Maybe I am too stuck in the past but I still remember when I was really getting into model tracking at PSU and much of the guidance didn't even go out past 48 hours.  The old NGM and ETA and RGEM of course.  The AVN only went to 72.  Past that we had the MRF run once a day out to day 10 and the once a day Euro to day 7.  If you were really desperate you could look at the nogaps out to 144.  But hard core tracking like we do now for everything inside day 30 didn't start until inside 48 hours.  Now by the time we get to 48 hours I am exhausted by the storm already.  Also find it funny how we cant trust the models completely at 72 hours but will freak out over a bad run for day 15. 

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11 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I'm not sure it would be a miracle. It's going to be what it's going to be. Reminds me when I was a kid growing up in S Jersey and I would make minute by minute checks of the temperature when we would be in a rain to snow scenario.

I still do this.

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