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December 8/9 wave


psuhoffman

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I'd say if the storm shows NO improvement by 18z, tomorrow, it's time to throw in the towel. Last time I'll reference the Jan 2017 event, but Thursday was the day when the major shifts happen. I remember seeing the 12z in the car and getting a bit of excitement in my chest. Stranger things have happened before

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Just now, Cobalt said:

I'd say if the storm shows NO improvement by 18z, tomorrow, it's time to throw in the towel. Last time I'll reference the Jan 2017 event, but Thursday was the day when the major shifts happen. I remember seeing the 12z in the car and getting a bit of excitement in my chest. Stranger things have happened before

Never surrender.

January 2000!!!!!

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I remain very optimistic. Tonight is 48+ hours from start. Just too much time left for a change for the better with such a slight improvement needed (relatively speaking.) And let's say the shoe was on the other foot and the Euro/Gfs showed a hit while the other models didn't.  No one in this forum would confident 48+ hours out and all would fear a Euro/Gfs collapse. 

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1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Problem is two major models say NO

I think everyone knows this is a loooong shot. Like full court lob at best. So just have some fun with it. No expectations. It's early December. We're playing with house money.  If a miracle happens great. If not oh well. Next. 

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I remain very optimistic. Tonight is 48+ hours from start. Just too much time left for a change for the better with such a slight improvement needed (relatively speaking.) And let's say the shoe was on the other foot and the Euro/Gfs showed a hit while the other models didn't.  No one in this forum would confident 48+ hours out and all would fear a Euro/Gfs collapse. 

I give you points for attitude!  I always fear a fail until I can actually see the system in real time and see how it's progressing. I don't trust the models. But that's what makes this so much fun. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think everyone knows this is a loooong shot. Like full court lob at best. So just have some fun with it. No expectations. It's early December. We're playing with house money.  If a miracle happens great. If not oh well. Next. 

Back when models showed both the coastal and clipper had a chance for us, I figured max potential was like 2”.

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I figured the Navgem drops .84" qpf off the 18z run imby. I took a second look at the legend and it is the average mm that falls per hour during a 6 hour period. So basically, multiply 6 times the amount corresponding to the color in the legend to get the total qpf in mm for that 6-hour period, then multiply that times .4 for inches.

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17 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

18z GEFS ensemble yesterday vs 18z GEFS ensemble today

gefs_snow_ens_washdc_14.thumb.png.c45bffff375231ae671f43fb7658023a.png

18z GEFS today

5a2888c86140e_gefs_snow_ens_washdc_14(1).thumb.png.5cf30648e677ab1fe450cad161515c7f.png

I see more blues/grays. We take

That's because you only ran it out to 78 hours. 78 hours from yesterday's 18z is pre-storm. The trend went the other way on the gefs. Less snowy rather than more snowy. Exactly the opposite point you were trying to make. 

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Just now, Negnao said:

That's because you only ran it out to 78 hours. 78 hours from yesterday's 18z is pre-storm. The trend went the other way on the gefs. Less snowy rather than more snowy. Exactly the opposite point you were trying to make. 

Oh. I guess a 5-6 on the pain scale is more needed

 

painscalefaces (1).jpg

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