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WeatherFeen2000

December 9th 2017 Crusha or brusha?

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Models have been trending towards a low forming on the arctic boundary and riding it up the coast. The cmc is the most robust and now the ukmet and navgem have been decently robust. These models are showing warning snows even into NYC area. Nam is decent with at least advisory snows but GFS has been a whiff and so has been the euro. Let’s discuss the future models here

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NYC will get 6.5" UK west, Euro to follow as per tradition. Somehow this will deliver despite a rather ugly trough. If the GGEM verifies it would be an interesting storm on the NESIS  scale, snow from New Orleans to Maine, Atlanta buried by their standards.

 

Obviously the 6.5" figure Is purely speculative and has no reasoning.

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The interaction between the southern S/W and northern stream on Sat PM/Sunday will be key. If little interaction, it gets kicked out like the GFS. The GGEM/UK/NAM have something more significant due to better interaction. 

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Euro did develop the 2nd low more defined on this run and it was further west.

Maybe baby steps for the Euro

There's not a lot of time left for big adjustments, if nothing changes by tomorrow then gfs/Euro will be the way to go.

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3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

UKIE btw

2BA6F100-511E-4DD2-B5DB-ACA32F8DC38D.jpeg

Verbatim that's becoming a little close for comfort in eastern areas. But at this point hopefully we're getting the idea that the second piece of energy late this weekend is what we need to keep an eye on. The amplified idea is hopefully gaining steam, and the GFS as always will be last to catch onto southern stream evolution. 

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's not a lot of time left for big adjustments, if nothing changes by tomorrow then gfs/Euro will be the way to go.

Small evolutions aloft at 500mb will make for significant changes at the surface. More interaction 50 miles either way aloft means a storm developing in time and curling north, or a boot east and flatter system. There's still time for the much more amped outcome like the UKMET to happen. 

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14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's not a lot of time left for big adjustments, if nothing changes by tomorrow then gfs/Euro will be the way to go.

The GFS/Euro aren’t really that close.  The differences down south between 18-48 hours are crazy different 

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17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's not a lot of time left for big adjustments, if nothing changes by tomorrow then gfs/Euro will be the way to go.

There is plenty of time for changes and it we don't need big changes 

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS/Euro aren’t really that close.  The differences down south between 18-48 hours are crazy different 

Agreed, looks like the northern stream comes in too soon and pushes everything east. 

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Just now, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

2-3” is going to have to be a novena. Like I said, sleep with dogs, wake up with fleas. Ride the hot hand. 

And you don't have the hot hand

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

SREFs too. NAM was a western outlier with the brits and canadians. It's gone now too. 

Eps shows 1-2 inches

We will most likely get that

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2 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

You mean the NAM you been humping lol? You’ll get your snow Ant, just not this weekend. 

We will see snow this weekend

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We should stop with the west and east talk... nam and ggem although different outcomes.. our LP is generally located in similar position. intensity, trof orientation and stream interaction are the main differences, not east and West LP placement... our northern stream and southern stream energy interact on the ggem, a wider precip shield produces, however our Northern stream is a kicker on the nam and other models, and act to suppress our southern stream energy so despite similar LP placement we get a weaker, less expansive precip shield

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A lot of us like the 13th 18th and even something around the 23rd.

This weekends system has small upside east of I95.

.2 to .3 is seen on the EPS and that has been the idea.

No one is humping the UK or CMC they are high skilled scored models that may be over doing it in the deep south..

This 3 week cold pattern has been talked about from late November.

There's a chance it's active 

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