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December 9th 2017 Crusha or brusha?


WeatherFeen2000

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You do notice that there was a big jump in precip over the Gulf Stream and the drop west of there. Could be feedback, could be the GFS finally finding a nut, who knows.

I don't trust the gfs at this range, not that it has performed all that well with this storm. That being said, with short range, hi res models depicting a rather primed and conducive atmosphere, along with the overperforming of down south, I would tend to believe the stronger / more west solutions. I'm also waiting to see what happens with the interactions and if we do get any true latent heat release, we will see.
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35 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Indeed!

I don't think these last minute jogs matter that much- often we see more accuracy from the models 24 hours out than 12 (you're not even really supposed to be using them less than 24 hrs out unless you're using the short range models.)  My sister in Jim Thorpe is saying they're still expecting about 4 inches of snow.  The ratios will be much higher there anyway.

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18 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

What’s with the trolls tonight? Man o man

Yeah we want nice snows for everyone.  When I'm headed to the Poconos again in a couple of weeks I want to go skiing and to see a nice mantle of white.  Having snow in both of my homes would be ideal, wintry Decembers are a lot more fun than wintry Marches.

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5 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yeah we want nice snows for everyone.  When I'm headed to the Poconos again in a couple of weeks I want to go skiing and to see a nice mantle of white.  Having snow in both of my homes would be ideal, wintry Decembers are a lot more fun than wintry Marches.

It’ll at least be plenty cold to make snow up there. But agree, nothing like the real thing. 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’ll at least be plenty cold to make snow up there. But agree, nothing like the real thing. 

We always need something to worry about, my worry is I just hope this pattern doesn't come to a screeching halt in January, that would suck.  Relax and reload is fine by me, even a 1996-esque January thaw is okay as long as we get some nice action after that too.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

We always need something to worry about, my worry is I just hope this pattern doesn't come to a screeching halt in January, that would suck.  Relax and reload is fine by me, even a 1996-esque January thaw is okay as long as we get some nice action after that too.

 

 

I agree things look favorable this month for a nice encore or three, hopefully a biggie, but I mostly take things one storm at a time. Awesome patterns are still based on luck at the end in timing to create a storm. They’ve gone bad plenty of times too. 

Nina winters are mostly good in December in the upper Mid Atlantic, so hopefully we get as much as we can out of this month. I agree that later in the winter might be lousy. It’s hard to keep the -PNA at bay for long in Nina years. 

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27 minutes ago, snywx said:

0z Ukie is 4-6" verbatim up here.. I would take that and run

Oh yeah, I'm fine with anything over 2 inches.  It's December after all and we know how they have trended in recent years, especially 2015.

Amazing to see WSW's and WWA's from the deep south to the northeast, as others have mentioned.

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Just hopping in from the Mid Atlantic forum since it seems most of the people went to sleep or something like that. Euro/Ukie lead me to believe that the GFS was a fluke, and I'm sure some of you may agree with that. From here on out, short range models should be the way to go. I wish most people in the Mid Atlantic forum knew that before giving up on the storm due to a bad GFS run. Anyways, good luck with the snow! Hope you guys can get some good snow bands up your way

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00z Euro shows lowest snowfall totals of under 3" and in some cases under 2" over eastern LI in exactly the areas where Upton has winter storm warnings.  Expect those warnings to be changed to WWA's by morning. Euro shows highest totals in NY metro over northwest NJ with 5" and arcing to CT, as well as parts of central NJ.

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