Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 GFS is nothing and Canadian well SE as well. That's the writing on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 hours ago, PB GFI said: Joe ? Hello , where are you man. I need the EPS precip maps for coastal CNJ You have to show us zero Mr hot hand where are you ? Hey jack it’s joe. I use trop tid but get other paid maps from others. Of course you know you don’t post paid maps here. In any case, ride the hot hand. You sticking with the NAM? Don’t look so hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 GFS was futher east, GGEM finally caved. nothing for even eastern LI on either model. it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Won't even be cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: GFS was futher east, GGEM finally caved. nothing for even eastern LI on either model. it's over. Has been for awhile if you are looking aloft and forecasting, not humping colors with a magnifying glass on the navgem or eps. Pattern recognition, knowing your locale, experience with similar setups. This one never argued nary a flake. Right now it’s a beach ball, rim looks like a manhole. Ride it. Watch the 17-18th, 13th always been a late bloomer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Yup. This threat is done. We need to wait until Christmas week for anything good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Yup. This threat is done. We need to wait until Christmas week for anything good. Watch us go the whole month with zero snow, it's certainly not out of the question. Next week's threat is a late bloomer, the one after that may cut inland and then we're well into Christmas week. We managed to get snow last year in a torch pattern, who says we can't miss out in a cold one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Watch us go the whole month with zero snow, it's certainly not out of the question. Next week's threat is a late bloomer, the one after that may cut inland and then we're well into Christmas week. We managed to get snow last year in a torch pattern, who says we can't miss out in a cold one. I doubt we will avoid snowfall for the whole month. This isn't December of 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: I doubt we will avoid snowfall for the whole month. This isn't December of 1989. I guess that depends what you mean by snowfall, are we talking at least an inch, snow showers, or something more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 45 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: GFS was futher east, GGEM finally caved. nothing for even eastern LI on either model. it's over. Hopefully this proves a few things; 1) the GGEM and NAVGEM are both totally worthless, useless models 2) Don’t use SREFs days out 3) Don’t use the NAM beyond 24 hours and take it with a huge grain of salt even after that 4) Don’t use the RGEM beyond 24 hours 5) Even though the UKMET is a good model, it has its bad days, just like the Euro and GFS, so when it’s showing an obvious outlier solution, don’t believe it just because it’s showing snow 6) The EPS is usually (usually) the way to go, op Euro is usually the way to go when you get close 7) The GFS actually isn’t too bad in northern stream dominant patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The Ukie must still be having a bad day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Crazy uncle is trying to slip out the door to the east stealthily unnoticed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The Euro is a scraper for people east of the city. .1 makes it only as far west as FRG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: The Euro is a scraper for people east of the city. .1 makes it only as far west as FRG. What a shock, still a fork in this one, its done. I highly doubt we will see any kind of shift back towards the west on the models tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 How is this event done? This modelology in here is out of control!!! Can you guys do me a favor and give me the mega and powerball numbers for the next drawing? last March we witnessed an epic fail at the coast right at game time as a storm ended up west. I’m not by any means saying this is going west. But calming the threat is gone is just ridiculous. Despite current runs I still think allot of us see our first coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: How is this event done? This modelology in here is out of control!!! Can you guys do me a favor and give me the mega and powerball numbers for the next drawing? last March we witnessed an epic fail at the coast right at game time as a storm ended up west. I’m not by any means saying this is going west. But calming the threat is gone is just ridiculous. Despite current runs I still think allot of us see our first coating We just need a small bump west to get a small event. I think this storm will be done if we don't see any changes by 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Watch us go the whole month with zero snow, it's certainly not out of the question. Next week's threat is a late bloomer, the one after that may cut inland and then we're well into Christmas week. We managed to get snow last year in a torch pattern, who says we can't miss out in a cold one. What evidence do you have that we will go snowless this month ? Watch the 13th forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What evidence do you have that we will go snowless this month ? Watch the 13th forward. Dry Euro weeklies, the trough orientation/PV location in Central Canada, lack of a -NAO in a Nina pattern. I'm sure we saw plenty of these setups in the snowless 1980s. That being said it's very early and it's very unlikely, just based on climo alone, that we end up with nothing but it's not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nam and Gfs shifts west and has a little snow for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 9 hours ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Hey jack it’s joe. I use trop tid but get other paid maps from others. Of course you know you don’t post paid maps here. In any case, ride the hot hand. You sticking with the NAM? Don’t look so hot. Wait you use tropical tidbits which doesn't have any Euro or EPS QPF. You and I discussed that the EPS at 12z had .2 to .3 into our area , you said the EPS you saw showed that for AC. I knew you didn't have access to the EPS and that you were just winging it in here my man. If you paid for maps you would have seen that. Here's one thing that tells me that you are a complete novice in here ,( besides your plus 4 in November call ) you are spiking the ball above 72 hours out . The call was for . 2 to .3 to fall in Monmouth County , I will let the guidance come to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Watch us go the whole month with zero snow, it's certainly not out of the question. Next week's threat is a late bloomer, the one after that may cut inland and then we're well into Christmas week. We managed to get snow last year in a torch pattern, who says we can't miss out in a cold one. The best reverse indicator has spoken. Nothing is cutting into a TPV , once it elongates and retrogrades , you will snow. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Gefs look good for the area Alot of member have some snow in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Wait you use tropical tidbits which doesn't have any Euro or EPS QPF. You and I discussed that the EPS at 12z had .2 to .3 into our area , you said the EPS you saw showed that for AC. I knew you didn't have access to the EPS and that you were just winging it in here my man. If you paid for maps you would have seen them Here's one thing that tells me that you are a complete novice in here ,( besides your plus 4 in November call ) you are spiking the ball above 72 hours out . The call was for . 2 to .3 to fall in Monmouth County , I will let the guidance come to me. No I don’t pay for Euro maps. But I do get what I need. I don’t hug every qpf map. On the record your call is .3 into C Monmouth, mine is cirrus. We’ll verify after, and not ACY. Should’ve walked Bonds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: No I don’t pay for Euro maps. But I do get what I need. I don’t hug every qpf map. On the record your call is .3 into C Monmouth, mine is cirrus. We’ll verify after, and not ACY. Should’ve walked Bonds. How can you call this a bust 3 days out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: No I don’t pay for Euro maps. But I do get what I need. I don’t hug every qpf map. On the record your call is .3 into C Monmouth, mine is cirrus. We’ll verify after, and not ACY. Should’ve walked Bonds. My call was and in for .2 to .3 into Monmouth County , trust me it's out on 3 boards Your call is for cirrus. We will see. After this there will be 2 legit opportunities to snow before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 6z gfs was the best it’s looked for this storm. East of the city gets a nice 1-3+. Though go figure the rain line is very close as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: 6z gfs was the best it’s looked for this storm. East of the city gets a nice 1-3+. Though go figure the rain line is very close as well. Fake news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, PB GFI said: My call was and in for .2 to .3 into Monmouth County , trust me it's out on 3 boards Your call is for cirrus. We will see. After this there will be 2 legit opportunities to snow before Christmas. I agree on other threats for Christmas. At least 1-2. This weekend, dry and cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: How can you call this a bust 3 days out ? 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: How can you call this a bust 3 days out ? Because my opinion is the setup is poor and I believe it’s a whiff. But you guys are back on a couple 6z runs. Where were you last night. I’m not riding each run. The setup doesn’t fit, I’m not changing run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Fake news. I wasn’t referring to 3 days ago, just meant out of the most recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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