December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[CoastalWx]

Also note the tail of vorticity is a little tighter on the 12z euro. Get it nice and tight, and we buckle....or maybe some unbuckle??

[ORH_wxman]

Euro is gonna come west...but prob not a big jump. Kind of how we'd expect it to go with that model.

[dryslot]

Just looking at the H5 maps, This run should be better on the 12z Euro then the 0z run, Heights are higher of the EC

[WintersComing]

Overall precip shield looks more robust and a bit further north and west early on

[CoastalWx]

Won't be much I don't think, but it is trying. 

[dryslot]

Its not going to be a lot, But i wouldn't expect a Ukie track from it either, More incremental.

[ORH_wxman]

Northern stream is actually hurting this run....it's further east which may be offsetting improvements down south.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Won't be much I don't think, but it is trying. 

Big difference even down south early on between ECM and CMC/UKMET.

[ORH_wxman]

It's gonna try at the last second to curl it north...the northern stream makes a last ditch effort to phase in with the southern vort energy.

[dryslot]

Looks like its trying for a tug back to the NW

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

at 72 hours, it looks like it will phase

[CoastalWx]

We take. Last minute phase there...but boy if that is sooner....

[dryslot]

Not bad, Its what i expected this run, Its a couple tics to the west, Its moving in a favorable direction.

[ORH_wxman]

Def an improvement over 00z...but incrementally. Looks like maybe advisory snows for SE MA....prob like 2-3" or so for BOS.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We take. Last minute phase there...but boy if that is sooner....

I think the trend is towards a faster second arctic shortwave that will act to phase with the southern stream disturbance

[WintersComing]

hr 78 can definitely see it pulling back a bit

[weathafella]

We’re moving in the right direction.  GFS tossed.

[MJO812]

Low is further west on this Euro run

 

So close

[dryslot]

Awful damn close to a Ukie scenario, Just need a further south and cleaner phase and its off to the races.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

hr 78 can definitely see it pulling back a bit

that ARCTIC shortwave diving southward out of Ontario, Canada means business, instead of two separate systems like we thought on Sunday, it looks like the second shortwave will phase with the southern stream and we get one big system this weekend, GFS and NAM at 12z produce over 8" of snow for my location this weekend

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

We’re moving in the right direction.  GFS tossed.

If that's what we can expect out of the GFS this winter its going to be a long one.

[Damage In Tolland]

Seemed to be a 2-4” event since yesterday when we saw so many hits on the ens. I see no reason to sway from that amount for all of SNE. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dryslot said:

Awful damn close to a Ukie scenario, Just need a further south and cleaner phase and its off to the races.

Ukie prob cracked out a bit...but its solution combined with the Euro (as we thought) methodical incremental shift west is a good sign for a bigger event.

[Typhoon Tip]

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie taking a big jump west is def a good sign...it's not a bottom feeder like the GGEM/NOGAPS/NAM.

gonna sound wacky but ... it's almost like if we can get this thing Saturday to verified, we're really getting clocked next week if just going by the present tenor of pattern handling - 

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'd be a little surprised if it wasn't, based on the raob to model comparison.

thank you !

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

gonna sound wacky but ... it's almost like if we can get this thing Saturday to verified, we're really getting clocked next week if just going by the present tenor of pattern handling - 

Please

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie prob cracked out a bit...but its solution combined with the Euro (as we thought) methodical incremental shift west is a good sign for a bigger event.

We can place this in the positive bank, As was mentioned, It was not going to make a big move, But your scenario of it ticking west until we get into hr 60 or so then holding, I totally agree with, It looks like now we have our weekend event upcoming.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

12z EURO brings snow to coastal LA, this reminds me of the system back in 2004, the December Boxing Day Snowstorm, where TEXAS and LA got over a few inches of snow day after Christmas.  My house got 15-18"

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro will prob come incrementally west...it typically doesn't like to make huge jumps. If this storm ends up being a solid hit, the Euro will prob make like 3 methodical moves west and then hold pretty steady the final 60 hours.

sorry to bomb you with replies but that might be a artifact of that model's expensive correction schemes with that whole 4-D system 

[OceanStWx]

Looks like AFA will be an important sounding tonight, along with CYEV (Inuvik). Doesn't look like Barter Island has launched a balloon in a while, so that's out.

That will be the northern progress of the shortwave before it begins the dive south.