December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[ajisai]

euro starting up...

[CT Rain]

Best synoptic-scale lift of the whole event comes in after midnight as the s/w swings through. With temperatures cooling through the column we get better snow growth too. Watch for a surprise inch or two of fluff at the end of the event? 

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Not so.  Canadian was more robust, especially in western sections than 12z.

OK the GGEM improved from 12z. RGEM, NAM, RPM, GFS all cut back. 

[CT Rain]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

You explain yourself so well and break it down so easily that you can certainly get away with being more technical than most can on TV. 

I also really love with how every storm you always take the time to explain snowfall ratios, liquid equivalent, and discuss the process behind the generation of ice crystals and dendrites. This aspect of snowfall forecasting is vastly overlooked by many but its an extremely critical aspect of forecasting. I think I was lower (2-4'') but I was thinking less than 10:1 ratios. I was hedging more like 7:1 or 8:1. But when you explain snowfall rations you mention how these vary so from within the storm and I think many don't realize or understand this. You only get the maximized snowfall rations when you have strong enough lift into the snowgrowth zone (and of course you have the other parameters needed too) but I think so many just assume 10:1 or 15:1 from start to finish and that's just not the case.

For tomorrow I think they'll range from 7:1 to 10:1 but those higher rations will only occur in brief stints and I can't see snowfall rates eclipsing 1/2'' per hour or more for long duration's and I think that hurts when it comes to widespread higher totals.

I wouldn't really forecast 7 or 8:1 in a storm like this unless we were having some issues with low level warmth. Snow growth is my no means great but it's definitely not awful either. 

[dryslot]

I wouldn't base my forecast off the GGEM though

[Ginx snewx]

Snowing in Mobile lol

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I wouldn't base my forecast off the GGEM though

I'm not.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I wouldn't base my forecast off the GGEM though

No, but the that fact it trended slightly more robust at hr 12 tells me we aren't going to see a bust.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Best synoptic-scale lift of the whole event comes in after midnight as the s/w swings through. With temperatures cooling through the column we get better snow growth too. Watch for a surprise inch or two of fluff at the end of the event? 

Mobiles snow? You will verify fine

[CT Rain]

Euro is going to cut back from 12z I think. Less impressive precip shield on NW side. 

[CT Rain]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Euro is going to cut back from 12z I think. Less impressive precip shield on NW side. 

Not by much though

[40/70 Benchmark]

Noise. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I wouldn't really forecast 7 or 8:1 in a storm like this unless we were having some issues with low level warmth. Snow growth is my no means great but it's definitely not awful either. 

so in a situation like this 10:1 would be good to go with? I can see that making sense. Bufkit did suggest 10:1 ratios with this

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Not by much though

Put away your worries, it's a great forecast. 

[weathafella]

Go time.  Hopefully it holds off til I awaken around 10.

[40/70 Benchmark]

About 9 for me.

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

About 9 for me.

Boston, NYC, and PHL QPF please 

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

About 9 for me.

Euro shows only 4-6 for you.  Jackpot area is in my hood, about 6".  So GGEM was all alone at 0z with increased qpf from 12z. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Euro qpf is so close is basically just noise to me. Still looking good. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Euro shows only 4-6 for you.  Jackpot area is in my hood, about 6".  So GGEM was all alone at 0z with increased qpf from 12z. 

No...I mean my wake up time.

[JC-CT]

6z bumped up a tad. Agree with the noise comments, but definitely not going to end up like the early runs of yesterday.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

You will do fine, Kev will slant stick so you verify lol

Nice

[JC-CT]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice

Said with endearment

[ORH_wxman]

Def keep it a bit conservative based on overnight guidance. It takes a little while for this to get going. The meat is really between 18z and 03z. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def keep it a bit conservative based on overnight guidance. It takes a little while for this to get going. The meat is really between 18z and 03z. 

We’d all better hope HRRR is wrong

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’d all better hope HRRR is wrong

Meh. It's actually not bad for eastern areas. I'd much rather have the NAM verify. It does take a long time to get going west of maybe 495 and 395...until after noontime. I'd prob keep expectations there to 3-5" and then be pleasantly surprised if 6"+ happens. I think this will end up being a foxboro to blue hill jackpot probably. Maybe our resident accordion man too in NE RI. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’d all better hope HRRR is wrong

I saw your post and went to look... it's only through 11pm though.  Radar looks like its still well in progress for you.

Pretty much removes any chance of even flurries up here though.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Meh. It's actually not bad for eastern areas. I'd much rather have the NAM verify. It does take a long time to get going west of maybe 495 and 395...until after noontime. I'd prob keep expectations there to 3-5" and then be pleasantly surprised if 6"+ happens. I think this will end up being a foxboro to blue hill jackpot probably. Maybe our resident accordion man too in NE RI. 

Was hoping for the morning start . Delays generally aren’t good 

[moneypitmike]

6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

You will do fine, Kev will slant stick so you verify lol

Best on how much will Lunenburg come in with?

 

This has the hall marks of a WNE screwing.  I had said yesterday 1-2" out here in western Franklin.  That said, I will probably bust low--I might wind up with as much as 3 or so.  I could score with a higher total on Tuesday night than today.    

27.0*

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was hoping for the morning start . Delays generally aren’t good 

Yeah I'm not excited about a 4-6 hour delay in the start. I was hoping for 6"+ here but went into it saying I wanted 4" minimum. May have to claw a bit to get there now. This one could still have a surprise or two though so no need to go full on busto-rama yet. The ML fronto does ramp up nicely later on.