December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When I was checking my phone at work today and saw you bumped I was freaking out  

BTW, my roommate and I were watching your 11:00 forecast last night and it was tremendous. It sucks I don't get to really watch the news much but the way you break things down and explain them is quite inspiring. 

Thank you! That means a lot. 

Check out my blog from tonight... sort of went through how I arrived at my forecast. https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories/First-Snow-Storm-of-the-Season-462916803.html

Also... this was from yesterday afternoon. I can't believe they let me do this stuff on TV lol  https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/video/#!/on-air/as-seen-on/How-Saturdays-Storms-Form/462667493.html

 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's still at your numbers 

Sure... but the trend is down. It's also now an outlier of the 00z solutions. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

No... Reggie cut back from 18z about 10 or 20% in terms of QPF. 

It’s really down to radar and short range model watching IMO. The overall trend in the 0z suite can’t be denied, but we really have to see how the next piece of energy starts things up south of us I guess. Hopefully it surprises well. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's still at your numbers 

I think its noise...guidance wax and wanes.

[Greg]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just meant the board is neueotic...I wasn't calling anyone out. We all are obsessed. 

Oh, don't worry, I agree fully.  It's the first snow of the season. We all are little snow freaks when you think about. Good luck with your forecast.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It’s really down to radar and short range model watching IMO. The overall trend in the 0z suite can’t be denied, but we really have to see how the next piece of energy starts things up south of us I guess. Hopefully it surprises well. 

Yeah... short term models... like the RGEM, NAM, WRFs etc

[Ginx snewx]

HRRR looks great by the way, so does RAP. Steady as she goes

[jm1220]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Yeah... short term models... like the RGEM, NAM, WRFs etc

Or the HRRR, RAP which still look good? 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think its noise...guidance wax and wanes.

Ryan is a worry wart sometimes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Sure... but the trend is down. It's also now an outlier of the 00z solutions. 

UK was still robust...I think GEM was, too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Ryan is a worry wart sometimes. 

Well, he has a bit more at stake lol

[CT Rain]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Or the HRRR, RAP which still look good? 

"look good" not sure what that means. 

Through 18 hours I see 1/3" of QPF for Hartford. That's lovely. What happens after that? We're sort of at the end of the useful range for the HRRR. 

Every model backed off QPF at 00z by 10 or 20%. It's a fact. If I saw that earlier I would have stuck with my 3-6 instead of bumping I-91 and points east up to 4-8. It is what it is. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

UK was still robust...I think GEM was, too.

I would toss the RPM into the middle of the ocean, total POS, reminds me of the old Suny WRF

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, he has a bit more at stake lol

Over an inch or 3?

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, he has a bit more at stake lol

More of just being a perfectionist and wanting to beat the other stations lol

Plus the personal weenieism of waning 7" IMBY (which was always a stretch) but maybe having to settle for 3 or 4". 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Over an inch or 3?

Yes...competitive bussiness.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I would toss the RPM into the middle of the ocean, total POS, reminds me of the old Suny WRF

I like the RPM. Just about as useful as the other WRF based stuff like the NAM. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CT Rain said:

More of just being a perfectionist and wanting to beat the other stations lol

Plus the personal weenieism of waning 7" IMBY (which was always a stretch) but maybe having to settle for 3 or 4". 

Yea, I don't mean you'd lose your job...but obviously you are driven or you wouldn't be chief weenie.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I like the RPM. Just about as useful as the other WRF based stuff like the NAM. 

Where's it been the last 2 days? 

[CT Rain]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't mean you'd lose your job...but obviously you are driven or you wouldn't be chief weenie.

Oh no I understood what you were saying. 

It's obviously not a huge fail with this storm... still solid advisory. But I think the thought of some of the higher end solutions panning out is unlikely given the QPF trimming. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

"look good" not sure what that means. 

Through 18 hours I see 1/3" of QPF for Hartford. That's lovely. What happens after that? We're sort of at the end of the useful range for the HRRR. 

Every model backed off QPF at 00z by 10 or 20%. It's a fact. If I saw that earlier I would have stuck with my 3-6 instead of bumping I-91 and points east up to 4-8. It is what it is. 

Well there is your 4 in HFD and your 8 in ne ct

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Oh no I understood what you were saying. 

It's obviously not a huge fail with this storm... still solid advisory. But I think the thought of some of the higher end solutions panning out is unlikely given the QPF trimming. 

Agree.

[CT Rain]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Where's it been the last 2 days? 

Like any other very high resolution/mesoscale/convection allowing model it's really only in it's useful range within 24 to 36 hours out. 

[CT Rain]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Well there is your 4 in HFD and your 8 in ne ct

OK. Let me lock in an extrapolated HRRR lol

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Oh no I understood what you were saying. 

It's obviously not a huge fail with this storm... still solid advisory. But I think the thought of some of the higher end solutions panning out is unlikely given the QPF trimming. 

You will do fine, Kev will slant stick so you verify lol

[CT Rain]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

You will do fine, Kev will slant stick so you verify lol

Oh have already thought of that lol

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

More of just being a perfectionist and wanting to beat the other stations lol

Plus the personal weenieism of waning 7" IMBY (which was always a stretch) but maybe having to settle for 3 or 4". 

Absolutely. The ground will be covered by the time it’s done, making it to 6” would be better than having a couple inch event where grass blades still stick through. I’m still cautiously optimistic down here for a high end/borderline warning event, but let’s see what happens. It’ll be nice to see accumulating snow regardless. At least around NYC, this always looked like a 3-6” type event. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

OK. Let me lock in an extrapolated HRRR lol

Rap a da rap they call me the rapper.  Save a horse then panic if need be

[78Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

"look good" not sure what that means. 

Through 18 hours I see 1/3" of QPF for Hartford. That's lovely. What happens after that? We're sort of at the end of the useful range for the HRRR. 

Every model backed off QPF at 00z by 10 or 20%. It's a fact. If I saw that earlier I would have stuck with my 3-6 instead of bumping I-91 and points east up to 4-8. It is what it is. 

Not so.  Canadian was more robust, especially in western sections than 12z.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Thank you! That means a lot. 

Check out my blog from tonight... sort of went through how I arrived at my forecast. https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories/First-Snow-Storm-of-the-Season-462916803.html

Also... this was from yesterday afternoon. I can't believe they let me do this stuff on TV lol  https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/video/#!/on-air/as-seen-on/How-Saturdays-Storms-Form/462667493.html

 

You explain yourself so well and break it down so easily that you can certainly get away with being more technical than most can on TV. 

I also really love with how every storm you always take the time to explain snowfall ratios, liquid equivalent, and discuss the process behind the generation of ice crystals and dendrites. This aspect of snowfall forecasting is vastly overlooked by many but its an extremely critical aspect of forecasting. I think I was lower (2-4'') but I was thinking less than 10:1 ratios. I was hedging more like 7:1 or 8:1. But when you explain snowfall rations you mention how these vary so from within the storm and I think many don't realize or understand this. You only get the maximized snowfall rations when you have strong enough lift into the snowgrowth zone (and of course you have the other parameters needed too) but I think so many just assume 10:1 or 15:1 from start to finish and that's just not the case.

For tomorrow I think they'll range from 7:1 to 10:1 but those higher rations will only occur in brief stints and I can't see snowfall rates eclipsing 1/2'' per hour or more for long duration's and I think that hurts when it comes to widespread higher totals.