December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[WxBlue]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Big hit on GGEM...prob pretty widespread low end warning criteria storm for most east of VT...and outside far SE MA/Cape where BL issues are present. Looks almost like a paste bomb for BOS area verbatim.

Yep. I'm going to sound like a weenie, but still not game over for this weekend's threat even if hard-to-beat GFS/Euro combination isn't looking pretty for us snow lovers. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

+1 for that response.

Not bad for an uneducated weenie like me, eh?

[dendrite]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

i tried bro, which url, throw me a bone I am old

Load the images with the times they give you. Then load the image URL in a tab and edit whatever hour you want. They are 6hrly out to 84hr.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Would be nice to get my first measurable of the season. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I’m still digging out from the CMC’s 32” spot over my fanny from March.

Just can’t seem to believe any of these canadian, korean, german, and french models until the american and euro union’s come on board. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_12/accum/SN_024-084_0000.gif

ah you have to click on the image itself and change it, thanks snobro

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not bad for an uneducated weenie like me, eh?

weenie part is right

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m still digging out from the CMC’s 32” spot over my fanny from March.

Just can’t seem to believe any of these canadian, german, and french models until the american and euro union’s come on board. 

What did you get in that March storm?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

ah you have to click on the image itself and change it, thanks snobro

Yeah, I just did it, Need to copy the image location and then paste it on a new browser page.

[Ginx snewx]

Ok so now its 6 wrestling midgets against John Cena with the Big Show in the Gorilla position waiting to make his entrance, Heel or Face?

[OceanStWx]

57 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Was there a change in the Kuchera output recently?  Seems by looking at the last few  maps it's more conservative with amounts than 10:1.  Just wondering if they changed something with it.

 

55 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Probably not factoring in uber cold temps yet. Wait until next month.

Kuchera doesn't change. It's based on the max temp below 500 mb.

If the max temp is below -2 C it uses a ratio = 12 + (-2 - MaxT).

If the max temp is above -2 C it uses a ratio = 12 + 2* (-2 - MaxT).

So say we kiss 0C in the column, your ratio is 12 + (-2 - 0) or 10. You can see how for increasing max temps the ratio will go down. It's not fool proof though, because we all know +1C could ruin an event, but Kuchera would say a 9:1 ratio. 

On the opposite end of the spectrum, a real cold air mass (say -10C) would produce a 12 + 2 (-2 -(-10)) = 28:1. Possible, but a lot more than temps play into ratios.

So Kuchera attempts to bring some science in, it's a little better than a blanket ratio like 10:1. But still .

I prefer to use the Cobb method which brings in temps, RH, and lift. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=korh

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, I just did it, Need to copy the image location and then paste it on a new browser page.

open in new tab

[dryslot]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

open in new tab

yes

[Typhoon Tip]

Awesome .... we got the two most non- dependable tools in the fleet giving storm enthusiasts hope. 

 

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Big hit on GGEM...prob pretty widespread low end warning criteria storm for most east of VT...and outside far SE MA/Cape where BL issues are present. Looks almost like a paste bomb for BOS area verbatim.

My favorite model.  Up there with the ARW family.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Awesome .... we got the two most non- dependable tools in the fleet giving storm enthusiasts hope. 

 

RGEM wouldn't be on that list

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What did you get in that March storm?

14..... 10 of which fell in 3 hours.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

RGEM wouldn't be on that list

I just don't know how it verifies out at 84hrs when its best is inside 36hrs

[CT Rain]

Weird distribution on the 6z GEFS. Some big hits on there though. Can't write this off. 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Weird distribution on the 6z GEFS. Some big hits on there though. Can't write this off. 

Sweet three camps. Nothing, advisory, or warning. Helpful. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Comes down to timing with the OV sw and the southern stream. gfs delays it which basically shoves it east. cmc is faster, tries to wrap up more producing better lift. I dunno, lets see what euro says.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Sweet three camps. Nothing, advisory, or warning. Helpful. 

No kidding. We now have the Canadian with a paste job, and the GFS with flurries. Might as well role with the SREFs.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

No kidding. We now have the Canadian with a paste job, and the GFS with flurries. Might as well role with the SREFs.

I mean just the GEFS alone tosses those three outcomes out there. 

And I'm short term, I shouldn't even be looking at this one. I have TAFs to write.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Save a horse, as someone would say...

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

14..... 10 of which fell in 3 hours.

Sounds like verification in a general sense.

[CT Rain]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Sweet three camps. Nothing, advisory, or warning. Helpful. 

Exactly.

The EPS support the flurry camp with a few advisory outliers. 

But we know how underdispersive both the EPS and GEFS are. 

[MJO812]

Crazy Uncle is also further west

[Damage In Tolland]

The fact that the GGEM gives ATL snow makes me question its validity 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Crazy Uncle is also further west

Looks like very near the BM

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The fact that the GGEM gives ATL snow makes me question its validity 

lol that's quite the streak of snow it's got there.  From Gulf Coast to Maine.  That's a big time deal in the mid-Atlantic too.

Like everyone has said in past winters, the GGEM is my go-to model for hope on the far western side.