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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

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I have my friends 74th bday dinner in natick Saturday night.  I told him yesterday it may snow.   When he asked for details I told him I won’t know till Friday..lol.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Festive saturday. Get the grill ready out back and thaw out the :weenie:.

My 6 yr old said to me this morning, can we go sledding on Saturday? I gave her that look, she goes... you said it was going snow a few days ago (I mentioned possible flakes and she took it as sled time), so hopefully we can at least pull off a coating.

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i think the 00z Euro being 'a little' more optimistic for Holiday festivity confetti (though nothing major by any stretch) was telling for me anyway. 

the GFS has just been toxic to event level kinematics ever since it was challenged with the responsibility to churn out weather charts in this pattern coming in..  it's played right into the too much gradient/velocity saturation argument rather beautifully ...if perhaps too liberally?  

We'll see.. I think this Euro run will be telling because if it is stablized against that 00z look ... it's probably a safe bet given that particular model's skill. 

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5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

My 6 yr old said to me this morning, can we go sledding on Saturday? I gave her that look, she goes... you said it was going snow a few days ago (I mentioned possible flakes and she took it as sled time), so hopefully we can at least pull off a coating.

No different then when the vets here say “chance of something” and we lock it in.

But yea, don’t dissapoint the kid. Need another tug nw by euro/uk. 

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The fuzzy clustering western members are fairly well dominated by the EPS. NCEP and CMC are generally at or east of the the combined mean.

But those western members show that a deeper trof, especially through the Southeast, and a trof axis further west is good for us.

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

Lemme know When HARVEY Is Bullish

Probably tonight presuming other guidance follows the soon to be buried but not mourned nor missed NAM.

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The soundings are rather cool even at BOS. Plus, srfc winds back to N-NNW. That's fine for Logan. lower elevations may take a little time to accumulate, but they will wetbulb to 30-32 overnight..maybe a tick or two lower. Looks like a man paste for the lower elevations. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We knew this wasn't dead.

Kicking myself going 2-4" on first guess in se MA last night, and not 2-5".

I’ve had 2-4” since Monday. I’m sticking with that, but am wondering if that may be a bit too low . 12z runs should help 

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The fuzzy clustering western members are fairly well dominated by the EPS. NCEP and CMC are generally at or east of the the combined mean.

But those western members show that a deeper trof, especially through the Southeast, and a trof axis further west is good for us.

it's definitely better if the "smear" direction is west in this case.  

we may also want to look at whether there is a convective explosion in the 12 hour prior to the whatever slips NE of the MA baroclinically, because as we know ..that latent heat flux may not asses into the heights east of the EC quite perfectly ... 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve had 2-4” since Monday. I’m sticking with that, but am wondering if that may be a bit too low . 12z runs should help 

This has looked better than next week's threat to me for a day or two...dont be shocked to see this ramp up more....that trough is impressive.

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Figured the west shift was going to happen sooner than later knowing the east coast climatology, but that's quite a big jump from yesterday's runs. Even took me by a surprise.

Look like it's time to start satellite watching to track that trough swinging through southern states. Too bad GOES 16 is currently down for re-positioning.

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