December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’d buy that.    Still, worth tracking.  Especially for folks in your hood

Can't blame him, but I'll sell on a non event...at least for e NE

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

they must think eps moving to the canadian/french/german/british combo is a lock.

Maybe my comment was a bit harsh, and the deeper cold is west so regardless of QPF they feel further west has a higher chance at more snow....it's just surprising.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Maybe my comment was a bit harsh, and the deeper cold is west so regardless of QPF they feel further west has a higher chance at more snow....it's just surprising.

Very surprised they have a > 4” stripe already, even at that percentage. I see that chance for here as maybe 5% at best.

[Henry's Weather]

Think models will consolidate tomorrow after sampling of the energy over Alaska.

[dendrite]

50 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Maybe my comment was a bit harsh, and the deeper cold is west so regardless of QPF they feel further west has a higher chance at more snow....it's just surprising.

That’s only through 00z Sunday too. Some of the more amped models are still snowing after that.

[ineedsnow]

SREFS are west it seems.. Even though they are junk!!

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Maybe my comment was a bit harsh, and the deeper cold is west so regardless of QPF they feel further west has a higher chance at more snow....it's just surprising.

Higher ratio dusting?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

SREFS are west it seems.. Even though they are junk!!

When it comes left, they are right for the wrong reasons. When it goes right, they are wrong for the right reasons. 

[ORH_wxman]

SREFs def moved west on mean by like 75 miles. It's really the ARW members vs the NMB members. Surprisingly it is the ARW members that are whiffs. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

SREFs def moved west on mean by like 75 miles. It's really the ARW members vs the NMB members. Surprisingly it is the ARW members that are whiffs. 

That’s strange. PF usually needs to hang his hat on the reliable amped ARW members.

[40/70 Benchmark]

First Guess:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/12/confidence-of-first-snowfall-in-eastern.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

Final Call Friday Night.

[weathafella]

It looks like the soon to be dead NAM wants th later wave?

[CoastalWx]

LOL at the differences at H5 in the Midwest. Seems like it may get s low going near nrn FL at hr 57

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said:

Think models will consolidate tomorrow after sampling of the energy over Alaska.

Yup.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah it's focusing on a slower evolution which is probably a good thing. Northern stream is digging deeper too. 

[ORH_wxman]

Verbatim it is probably going to still be a putrid looking solution but it's a positive step...I'm not sure it really means much anyway given it is the NAM after 48 hours. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

At this point nam, just dig it deep and back...why not. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Verbatim it is probably going to still be a putrid looking solution but it's a positive step...I'm not sure it really means much anyway given it is the NAM after 48 hours. 

Yeah I took it as a good sign. If the southern s/w just tightened up a little more along with the nrn stream improvements, would be a good solution.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I took it as a good sign. If the southern s/w just tightened up a little more, that would be a good solution.

Yeah it dragged its heels just a bit. Otherwise that will rip a really nice ribbon of precip/lift almost due north. Won't take much...we saw the very late last ditch effort on the 12z euro too and it still managed borderline advisory almost to BOS-PVD. 

[Ericjcrash]

If you took the NAM literally (you shouldnt) it would be historic for New Orleans. 

[dendrite]

8 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Seeing the 500 mb height below 530 dm at 00z would be good at AFA.

529dm

[dryslot]

Last minute tug north, But the potential is there on the Nam

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

If you took the NAM literally (you shouldnt) it would be historic for New Orleans. 

What do you mean?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

529dm

Thanks, Brian.

[Ericjcrash]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What do you mean?

4" of snow there is generational at best. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I don’t see much of a snow profile there. Mangled flake mixed in may lead to a complete shut down, sure.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup.

Ray, I am not sure he is saying the right thing for this Friday/Saturday system, if the energy is being sampled over Alaska that would be for the mid week storm, not this weekend's storm, our energy wants to be sampled tonight over Northern Canada, northwest of Hudson Bay, that is our energy for this weekend

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Actually the models won't have a handle on the arctic shortwave until it is over International Falls, MN, within the next 54 hours

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ray, I am not sure he is saying the right thing for this Friday/Saturday system, if the energy is being sampled over Alaska that would be for the mid week storm, not this weekend's storm, our energy wants to be sampled tonight over Northern Canada, northwest of Hudson Bay, that is our energy for this weekend

The the observation network is not as dense near the arctic, so we will avail ourselves of denser sounding data as it travels southward.