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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)


Baroclinic Zone

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Mostly I just skim to get caught up, but there was a point yesterday were Noyes was getting ripped on for something about his forecast and coastal temps...well it is 37 degrees here in Manomet Plymouth. Noyes usually does really well with the plymouth cape cod and canal area. More often than not, guidance will keep my area too cold. Warm air usually floods in with no resistance often even before precip ever arrives. 

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9 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Mostly I just skim to get caught up, but there was a point yesterday were Noyes was getting ripped on for something about his forecast and coastal temps...well it is 37 degrees here in Manomet Plymouth. Noyes usually does really well with the plymouth cape cod and canal area. More often than not, guidance will keep my area too cold. Warm air usually floods in with no resistance often even before precip ever arrives. 

That was for BOS. Far SE areas and the Cape were progged to have trouble. 

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58 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will, given the trends of last 12 Hours, was this due to less N stream digging , less Consolidated S. Stream energy, and lastly would you be shocked to see this Trend even weaker right thru today

Yeah I was checking some of the big runs like the 18z run of the NAM from Thursday and it def had a deeper northern stream. Looks like we overtrended that a little bit. 

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QPF gets so overblown sometimes. In a situation like this you gotta not just look at total QPF but also take into account how drawn out QPF is overtime. 1/2” of QPF in 3 hours is much different than 1/2” in 6-8 hours. 

Things right now don’t look great at all for higher amounts. There is a big disconnect between the pieces of energy and jet max, 700mb frontogenesis actually decreased a bit, and it appears we will lack of prolonged period of strong enough vertical motion to produce nice solid rates. The saving grace for some could be what Ryan mentioned last night. 

It’s going to take some time for 1-2” of snow to accumulate on the ground for many. I think we’re just looking at an elongated band of snow with crappy flake size, weak intensity, and only brief spurts of moderate intensity with enhanced pockets of VV move overhead. But this will only be sustained for like 20-30 min at a time). 

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

QPF gets so overblown sometimes. In a situation like this you gotta not just look at total QPF but also take into account how drawn out QPF is overtime. 1/2” of QPF in 3 hours is much different than 1/2” in 6-8 hours. 

Things right now don’t look great at all for higher amounts. There is a big disconnect between the pieces of energy and jet max, 700mb frontogenesis actually decreased a bit, and it appears we will lack of prolonged period of strong enough vertical motion to produce nice solid rates. The saving grace for some could be what Ryan mentioned last night. 

It’s going to take some time for 1-2” of snow to accumulate on the ground for many. I think we’re just looking at an elongated band of snow with crappy flake size, weak intensity, and only brief spurts of moderate intensity with enhanced pockets of VV move overhead. But this will only be sustained for like 20-30 min at a time). 

Good take, agree. Ryans first call 2-4” looks good.

 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm not excited about a 4-6 hour delay in the start. I was hoping for 6"+ here but went into it saying I wanted 4" minimum. May have to claw a bit to get there now. This one could still have a surprise or two though so no need to go full on busto-rama yet. The ML fronto does ramp up nicely later on. 

What's this 4 to 6 HR delay?

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Good take, agree. Ryans first call 2-4” looks good.

 

I think that’s why so many times initial calls end up being too high and then people get all upset when things “start to look worse”. It’s one thing to have the QPF but that QPF needs to be analyzed. You gotta ask yourself; is the QPF being drawn out? do we have significant QPF falling in a small timeframe? How much of this QPF will be maximized and utilized by the strongest lift? Do we have sufficient lift into the SGZ? This is all my opinion of course but I’ve found myself to become much better at winter forecasting the past few years b/c of such questions. 

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Things definitely look better out across eastern SNE but could be cooked back here in CT for much more than 2-3” for most. That trough seems to be taking its sweet time amplifying enough to really capture that one main piece of s/w energy within the southern stream flow. Much of the stronger VV’s remain east of CT. In fact, I think you could even argue for some subsidence back this way and we end up with crappy flake size and horrid rates. E MA should get into blossoming action on the backside tonight 

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