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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Ericjcrash

Ericjcrash

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea but there’s a difference between his call for historic 4” of snow based off nam weenie maps compared to what actually hapenned, flakes in the air.

Deff overperformed in many areas of the south though.

Ok, had to go just a bit NE for historic 6" snows sorry. Snow accumulated on the beach in Galveston too.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow did the Deep South, and I mean Deep South get pounded...Record breaking snows for them in lots of areas.  

 

And I remember, somebody on here saying it might snow in New Orleans with this(and it was hard to believe)..and it did...nice call!  That’s something.  Richmond VA in for possible double digit snows...this thing is juiced.   Overachiever big time down there.  Impressive.

Already mentioned earlier in the thread, but Asheville is up to 8-11" with a whole night of light/moderate snow left. NWS GSP called for 1-2" the day before the event started. Not often you see a short-term forecast bust that epic. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WxBlue said:

Still juicer than 12z NAM. It's probably time to start looking at short-range models and nowcast the event anyway.

Yea, it shaved .1 qpf or something noise worthy. 

It’s all about nowcasting but every reliable guidance has remain pretty steadfast on amounts so I won’t be watching this like a hawk tonight. Wake in the morning and fully expect my 3-6”. 

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted

Those of you who are around Albany New York, Northwest / Western Massachusetts were always on the northwest / western fringe for snow.  You will see snow, don't worry completely yet. However, though looking at a colder situation with less precipitation isn't all that bad.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

your worry has merit...this could easily be a 1 to 3 or 4 baking powder disjointed mess for many places w of the river...

long duration wintry appeal, enough to gum up the roads etc

It's just the NAM. Not too worried yet.

But definitely not a great start to 00z.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

seriously I am not seeing the kind of radar presentation that shows a great sign of a nnw bend back , i am convinced of a good event eastern zones but I don't know about back to the west....i see a lot of splotchiness in the precip shield

It should develop pretty rapidly early tomorrow. That said, there's def a question of how heavy the precip is to the west...I still think it will be at least solid advisory back in the river valley but there's always a chance that the best midlevel moisture has trouble getting back there and you end up with weaker bands that struggle to give more than 0.03 or 0.04 of LE per hour at the peak....and you end up with a paltry event. This was never expected to have big rates...more of a drawn out storm...but you'd still want to see at least a couple hours in the 0.07-0.08 per hour range. 

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It should develop pretty rapidly early tomorrow. That said, there's def a question of how heavy the precip is to the west...I still think it will be at least solid advisory back in the river valley but there's always a chance that the best midlevel moisture has trouble getting back there and you end up with weaker bands that struggle to give more than 0.03 or 0.04 of LE per hour at the peak....and you end up with a paltry event. This was never expected to have big rates...more of a drawn out storm...but you'd still want to see at least a couple hours in the 0.07-0.08 per hour range. 

i have been going through the thread for the southeast and there is a lot of "showery" obs...ptype issues due to non sustained heavier rates etc....the area of really good goods is kida narrow and i think TT mentioned that earlier

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kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow did the Deep South, and I mean Deep South get pounded...Record breaking snows for them in lots of areas.  

 

And I remember, somebody on here saying it might snow in New Orleans with this(and it was hard to believe)..and it did...nice call!  That’s something.  Richmond VA in for possible double digit snows...this thing is juiced.   Overachiever big time down there.  Impressive.

Ginxy I believe . 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

i have been going through the thread for the southeast and there is a lot of "showery" obs...ptype issues due to non sustained heavier rates etc....the area of really good goods is kida narrow and i think TT mentioned that earlier

We have always been the W edge of anything good out here.  You should still be good for 3-5" but as you alluded to, always beware the baking powder back here in this set-up.   2-3" totals are certainly very possible for everyone W of the CT River if the dynamics are less than advertised.  Still better than bare ground. 

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, ajisai said:

does the fact that the models have seemed to forecast lower than observed for the south (from TX to MD) have any bearing on what might happen up here?

Maybe, But this could also be the fact that the temps are a little colder down there than progged so that translates into a better ratio.  This means lesser precipitation will get decent snows even for areas down south.  Any elevation will enhance that as you know.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, ajisai said:

does the fact that the models have seemed to forecast lower than observed for the south (from TX to MD) have any bearing on what might happen up here?

I don't think so. This was a first piece of energy sliding off the coast. We are going to get a second piece that rapidly forms tomorrow morning. Second, the areas that over achieved seemed to be more in the deform area from what i can tell. So, that will happen in a marginal environment. Not sure that means it was an overall bust? What may have occurred is the classic model bias of being a hair too warm with heavy rates and great snow production. 

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