December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[butterfish55]

Zoomed in 12zRGEM.  Higher totals are actually along the rt 24 corridorS of BOS.  Coastal front enhancement and the ULL.

Right where they should be.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Zoomed in 12zRGEM.  Higher totals are actually along the rt 24 corridorS of BOS

I could see that. Coastal front?

I could see a place like Brockton doing really well in this... maybe even over to Mansfield Norton area 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

 

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, It can have its hiccups but its less prone to the wild swings as you said, There was a couple events last winter it layed an egg on, But all and all, It is way better then the Nam.

I thought in 2015 it did very well, which got our attention as being the go to SR model. But last winter it choked a few times, agree. 

[WxBlue]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Very reliable inside 36 hrs in most cases, Better then the Nam.

 

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Night and day difference.

 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah overall it is more reliable. Although sometimes I find it's a bit too juiced...but it is not prone to the wild swings the NAM can have. It's thermal profiles are decent too. 

Fantastic. It's good to hear that it's pretty stable short-term. 

[tamarack]

16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Loves that NC to ME will have more snow on the season than yyt lol.  

No stranger than south TX having more on the season than the Maine foothills.

This is my 2nd latest of 20 snow seasons to receive a 1"+ snowfall, though it's only 1 day later (assuming we get an inch or more tomorrow by my 9 PM obs time) than 1998 and 2006.  May 2015 (1st 1"+ on 12/29) reign forever!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

gfs is a tick east with the trough.Just noise at this stage, though, imo.

[JBinStoughton]

8 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Zoomed in 12zRGEM.  Higher totals are actually along the rt 24 corridorS of BOS.  Coastal front enhancement and the ULL.


 

Right where they should be.

Yeah there’s no reason to complain about this or wish it away lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Meh, i guess qpf shoved SE and cut back on the edge. 

[WintersComing]

GFS also seems a little bit colder comparing at hr 36

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Meh, i guess qpf shoved SE and cut back on the edge. 

That's the theme for the 12z runs thus far.  Shunting things a bit eastward. 

[WintersComing]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Meh, i guess qpf shoved SE and cut back on the edge. 

Still showing a solid 5" for you

[MJOatleast7]

def ticked colder on the 12z GFS...

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Meh, i guess qpf shoved SE and cut back on the edge. 

Ya not quite as good, but still looks like 4-7 for most.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That's the theme for the 12z runs thus far.  Shunting things a bit eastward. 

Right. That’s usually the case the day before isn’t it.  This is when the Leo’s pop up. 

[dryslot]

Its starting to trim back on the western fringes, Northern stream s/w is not as sharp, Been heading this way since 0z for most of the models so far.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Zoomed in 12zRGEM.  Higher totals are actually along the rt 24 corridorS of BOS.  Coastal front enhancement and the ULL.

 

Congrats Scooter. Jackpot on the rgem. 

[OSUmetstud]

8 minutes ago, tamarack said:

No stranger than south TX having more on the season than the Maine foothills.

This is my 2nd latest of 20 snow seasons to receive a 1"+ snowfall, though it's only 1 day later (assuming we get an inch or more tomorrow by my 9 PM obs time) than 1998 and 2006.  May 2015 (1st 1"+ on 12/29) reign forever!

Yep.  Late start for sure.  Not worried. Still think most things are stacked in our favor overall. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its starting to trim back on the western fringes, Northern stream s/w is not as sharp, Been heading this way since 0z for most of the models so far.

 Not surprising. The GFS was really zonked at 06z. Seems like we are now rapidly narrowing the goalposts. 

[WintersComing]

Well looks like a good 4-8 for most of the area....good start to the season!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Congrats Scooter. Jackpot on the rgem. 

Scooters hometown of Brockton looked like 10-12".

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Congrats Scooter. Jackpot on the rgem. 

Of course. 

The ORH of Boston.

[CTWeatherFreak]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Meh, i guess qpf shoved SE and cut back on the edge. 

Yup... Both NAM and GFS are showing slight eastward shift and cutting back on western side precip.. Wonder it the northern vortex coming into better sampling area is playing out  in these shifts.  RGEM still seems solid but have to watch the rest of the 12z models come in.

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

 Not surprising. The GFS was really zonked at 06z. Seems like we are now rapidly narrowing the goalposts. 

More times then not, This ends up being the case as models will trend to the west for a few cycles only to start ticking back east as we get closer in to narrow things down to the eventual track.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

More times then not, This ends up being the case as models will trend to the west for a few cycles only to start ticking back east as we get closer in to narrow things down to the eventual track.

This is anecdotal on my part...it would be interesting to do an empirical analysis....but I feel like we frequently get a set trend for several cycles up until about 24 hours out and then guidance will tick back the other way at the last second. Like it almost overtrends and then does a last second correction. 

Doesnt happen every time of course. I've seen it keep going right to game time. But it would be interesting to see how often this happens. 

[8611Blizz]

FWIW.  Thermals ftl? NECN map of two hours ago.

[WxBlue]

It's worth noting that the northern edge has been overperforming in the Deep South, just like it did in southern Texas. I didn't see anything about Jackson, Mississippi getting more than 5 inches in their forecast yesterady. Asheville also saw a big jump in snowfall forecast this morning. I'm not sure if what's happening in the South will carry over to New England, but it's a trend I've been observing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd like to see a continued trend east...all else being equal, the best bet for this area is to move the cf further and get closer to the mid level banding.

I don't want to be near that CF maxima.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd like to see a continued trend east...all else being equal, the best bet for this area is to move the cf further and get closer to the mid level banding.

I don't want to be near that CF maxima.

Not a huge diff, though...this is on a smaller scale.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, WxBlue said:

It's worth noting that the northern edge has been overperforming in the Deep South, just like it did in southern Texas. I didn't see anything about Jackson, Mississippi getting more than 5 inches in their forecast yesterady. Asheville also saw a big jump in snowfall forecast this morning. I'm not sure if what's happening in the South will carry over to New England, but it's a trend I've been observing.

Yes .. it will . We’ve been discussing that very thing. This will drop good snows back to Albany 

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This is anecdotal...it would be interesting to do an empirical analysis....but I feel like we frequently get a set trend for several cycles up until about 24 hours out and then guidance will tick back the other way at the last second. Like it almost overtrends and then does a last second correction. 

Doesnt happen every time of course. I've seen it keep going right to game time. But it would be interesting to see how often this happens. 

Yes, Exactly, That is why in most cases, I like to see it get as far west with the track as possible, Especially up here with the way i am situated tucked in away from the coast, Just looking at this one as an example, The SE areas of SNE have the highest qpf totals, Then from about the Eastern Midcoast of Maine to the DE area the totals are higher again as well, I see this quite often with a track that is more ENE then NNE, Favored for here is a slp into the GOM, This one goes over NS or juts to the east of it, I would be curious as well to how many instances that this same scenario plays out on these systems, To me it seems like its quite a bit.