December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

4 to 7 looks good, great kick off 

I think what you have here is going to be the general accumulation for many here, Some on the higher end but no one should be upset with seeing 5", If they were expecting more then shame on them, This one is moving way to quick for something heavier.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Precip accum sharpened up.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Elevation will have advantages with this.  I think the TOL area up in ORH hills as well as the hills SW of BOS in NW RI will do well.

[CoastalWx]

Lot of ground too warm in TX-GA right now.   If I hear that phucking argument one more time.......

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Brownsville,  but winner Corpus Christie with TSSN

One of the most devastating hurricanes on record, and a snow event within 3 months...not bad.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One of the most devastating hurricanes on record, and a snow event within 3 months...not bad.

Kevin approved.

[CT Rain]

Let's see if the GEFS can get this one right...

[dendrite]

28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Or dewpoint because saturation occurs so DPs equal wetbulb

Dewpoints climb as the air moistens. So 36/26 air won't cool to 26 assuming no advection.

[Damage In Tolland]

The people that get 8-10” will be in the deform band .. which you won’t see modeled in qpf. Wherever that decides to set up.

outside of that north south zone will be a ton of 5-6” amounts 

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The people that get 8-10” will be in the deform band .. which you won’t see modeled in qpf. Wherever that decides to set up.

outside of that north south zone will be a ton of 5-6” amounts 

Agree 

[Baroclinic Zone]

3km NAM is even less impressive then the 12km.  Confines heaviest snows to S and SW of BOS over Norfolk and Bristol Counties and back in RI.

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

3km NAM is even less impressive then the 12km.  Confines heaviest snows to S and SW of BOS over Norfolk and Bristol Counties and back in RI.

yeah saw that, general 3-5" should be what most will get

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The people that get 8-10” will be in the deform band .. which you won’t see modeled in qpf. Wherever that decides to set up.

outside of that north south zone will be a ton of 5-6” amounts 

I think 8" is the upper limit.  2-4" W of ORH county, 4-6" from ORH to I-95 with isolated 7-8".

some will have a period of baking powder which will limit totals, plus I want to see how fast this thing gets moving once it gets N of Mid-Atlantic.  Interior NC to DE jackpot? 

[ORH_wxman]

I like my spot in this one. Hoping for 6"+. But will be pretty happy as long as I get at least 4. 

[codfishsnowman]

the nam is in it's wheelhouse though or getting close

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

the nam is in it's wheelhouse though or getting close

If it had a wheelhouse they wouldn’t be killing it.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

the nam is in it's wheelhouse though or getting close

lol, Or this is where the Nam is being the Nam.

[weathafella]

Reggie?

[Whineminster]

What are we thinking for timing on all this? I feel like most of it will happen during the dark while I'm tucked in bed. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Reggie?

Out to 24hrs

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Whineminster said:

What are we thinking for timing on all this? I feel like most of it will happen during the dark while I'm tucked in bed. 

Starts tomorrow AM along the S coast and spreads N through the AM.  Heaviest would be late afternoon into the overnight hours and ending Sunday AM, earlier in the west and lingering in the east as the ULLpasses thru.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Reggie?

Out to 24. Def earlier start time than NAM. Snowing by 4-5am

[dryslot]

12z RGEM looks good , May even be west of the 06z run, That's out to hr 36

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

What are we thinking for timing on all this? I feel like most of it will happen during the dark while I'm tucked in bed. 

You go to bed at 2pm?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Really like the rgem. Starts earlier and bends it back some more.

[Damage In Tolland]

Nam being nam. 

This thing has over performed from Mexico thru Texas to the southeast now. 

 

That means something further upstream 

[Whineminster]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You go to bed at 2pm?

lol.  Well BOX says it starts late tonight and is over by noon. 

First significant snowfall for the region will occur late tonight
and into early Sunday morning.

[weathafella]

Reggie vs Nammy?   No contest..lol

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

lol.  Well BOX says it starts late tonight and is over by noon. 

First significant snowfall for the region will occur late tonight
and into early Sunday morning.

Guess you forgot that Sunday is two days from now. 

[SnowHole413]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Nam being nam. 

This thing has over performed from Mexico thru Texas to the southeast now. 

 

That means something further upstream 

also gfs and gefs still seem to be trending NW. I think something bigger COULD happen than currently expected