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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Snowing on the Gulf Coast this morning... HOU is M1 -SN.

KHOU 081053Z 35011KT 2SM -SN BR SCT008 BKN014 OVC021 M01/M01 A3027 RMK AO2 SLP255 P0000 T10061006

Even Galveston, TX at elevation 7 feet on the Gulf of Mexico has been snowing for the past 4 hours.

 

Brownsville,  but winner Corpus Christie with TSSN

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Not be a debbie-d but ...there is still time for this to work out less ..

some snow is 100% ... those gaudy numbers? Mmm. Those are uncertain in my mind, and i mean that relative to 48 hours lead/standarization, too. 

I just don't like the Euro being inside it's wheel-house, where there is such a strident claim for success rates?   that's a ... 

b, that compression/velocity saturation issue of the general synoptic picture is still an offset/mitigation to S/W mechanical power that's in play, whether these other guidance sources have found the mechanical reasons to offset that the other direction or not ... Not here to say which is right or wrong, just that I'm leery of this whole thing ... I think advisory is fine, and if the Euro corrects a couple of tenths up in today's 12z shenanigans then I'd consider more...    

I suppose that backs one into a plausible assumption that without so much of that velocity robbing away from S/W jet maxes, this particular system would have done more ...? or at least, we would be talking higher totals and so forth with a bit more confidence.  perhaps.   

in what should be an unrelated matter (eh hm...),  i personally would be happy with a 2" of holiday confetti.  just some to sparkle the cheeks of the angels to let us know that they still care. for that ...i feel confident close to 100% that we'll satisfy some Christmas appeal..  It's always nicer to have that between T-Giving and such .. you know? right in there planning and shopping and cooking and life's affairs... and the smell of pine in one's living room if executing a hapless life form for three weeks of vapid symbolism is your game...

anyway, we'll probably have to deal with at least some of these types of larger scale versus S/W limitation headaches next week on that guy too, as the baser circulation issues will very likely still be in place. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe I am wrong, but I think mets are getting swayed by snow maps and srfc Ts. I do think SE of BOS more down into PYM county has issues on the water. It's a close call here. 

There must be a smarter way to do the rn/sn algorithm. Maybe anything with -2C H95 Tw’s are snow even if 2m is 34F. Models sometimes love to show those relatively cold 950s with that jump to +3C at the sfc. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There must be a smarter way to do the rn/sn algorithm. Maybe anything with -2C H95 Tw’s are snow even if 2m is 34F. Models sometimes love to show those relatively cold 950s with that jump to +3C at the sfc. 

Living on the coast, I have always been surprised on both sides. Thinking rain would happen..and then it stays snow...or vice versa. One thing I have noticed is that when you have that dry adiabatic look from the srfc to say 950 or 925...and it's precipitating...the model srfc Ts will always be too warm. Usually what happens is that you wetbulb down enough..or at least make the column a little more uniform and moist adiabatic. In your example, it would turn a model srfc T of 34-35 more like 32 or 31 if it's cold just off the deck. But, if you have that whole column warming to like -1C from 950-925 and it's modeled to be 35 with NE winds off the water..it very well could be a mix or even rain. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Living on the coast, I have always been surprised on both sides. Thinking rain would happen..and then it stays snow...or vice versa. One thing I have noticed is that when you have that dry adiabatic look from the srfc to say 950 or 925...and it's precipitating...the model srfc Ts will always be too warm. Usually what happens is that you wetbulb down enough..or at least make the column a little more uniform and moist adiabatic. In your example, it would turn a model srfc T of 34-35 more like 32 or 31 if it's cold just off the deck. But, if you have that whole column warming to like -1C from 950-925 and it's modeled to be 35 with NE winds off the water..it very well could be a mix or even rain. 

Yeah. Base it off of wetbulbs rather than the temps themselves. 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
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Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Right? Big switch there. The NAM is sort of how I see this working out in terms of what makes sense. I also wonder why some guidance almost warms a tick or too across the area as winds become more N-NNW. Must be the time of year. You most certainly are not warming near the coast when winds back like that. 

I was think that precipitation rates may be messing with the low level thermal profile.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Brownsville,  but winner Corpus Christie with TSSN

 

I guess we'll be covering the brown grass in any case this weekend in GC.  Congrats HubbDave.

Given the trace of snow yesterday and the overnight last night, I'll be able to claim "days and days of snow".

28.1*

 

 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

 

I guess we'll be covering the brown grass in any case this weekend in GC.  Congrats HubbDave.

Given the trace of snow yesterday and the overnight last night, I'll be able to claim "days and days of snow".

28.1*

 

 

OT but  I noticed the trace of snow on the cars this morning  and was surprised.  In the early morning light I first said to myself "that's the heaviest frost I've ever seen". 

We look pretty locked for 2-4" out here.

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