December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[weathafella]

Widespread 4s BDL-BOS-LEW

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Widespread 4s BDL-BOS-LEW

Yup, We don't toss.

[dryslot]

12z Ukie qpf

 

[weathafella]

That’s low end warning for many.

[dendrite]

0.40” 

Accepted. 

[dryslot]

Just now, weathafella said:

That’s low end warning for many.

Pretty good shift NW from the 0z run.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

This is about the best time to see the nw trend commence. Sometimes too close in, it’s an over correction. This looks real.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

That’s low end warning for many.

Yeah depending on ratios. At 15 to 1 it would be...10 to 1 is a little more iffy.

[dryslot]

I would be surprised if we don't get another tic or two west from the 12z Euro.

[weathafella]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah depending on ratios. At 15 to 1 it would be...10 to 1 is a little more iffy.

Well with about 0.7 in eastern areas 10:1 might nudge it over the top.  I always default to 10:1.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Since Ukie is the most West solution I'm cautious.  Seems like this could end up a 1-2" out here and 2-5" East of a BDL to BGR line.  

Since MPM hasn't chimed in I'll play the Eeyore role. 

[CTWeatherFreak]

I think Ukie has been pretty solid with this; the others by and large are moving toward it.

[OceanStWx]

The SOO out at DTX has created a new superensemble of sorts that we're playing around with here at GYX (so I only have 3 locations at my disposal).

It's a superensemble because of the numbers of members (hundreds), but it is basically a giant time-lagged short term guidance. It uses every run of everything available. So at hour zero, you have 18 runs of the HRRR, every run of the NAM that has data for the current hour (could be as many as 14), etc. So when you use every run it starts to wash out some of the windshield wiper effect.

For PWM it has about a 1/3 chance of 0.25" QPF, and 40% chance of 3" snow in 12 hours (centered around like 06z Saturday night). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Since Ukie is the most West solution I'm cautious.  Seems like this could end up a 1-2" out here and 2-5" East of a BDL to BGR line.  

Since MPM hasn't chimed in I'll play the Eeyore role. 

You will get the best banding, meat.

[dryslot]

I think a general 2-4 or 3-5" is very possible as it stands right now for many here, The higher end of totals along the coastline and just inland that can stay all snow.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think a general 2-4 or 3-5" is very possible as it stands right now for many here, The higher end of totals totals along the coastline and just inland that can stay all snow.

Yeah that’s the call right now.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah depending on ratios. At 15 to 1 it would be...10 to 1 is a little more iffy.

Will this be that 27-28 degree snow our area from here to ORH is famous for? 

[dryslot]

Just now, weathafella said:

Yeah that’s the call right now.

Yes Jerry, And we may not of hit the ceiling yet.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes Jerry, And we may not of hit the ceiling yet.

What’s the cieling for interior sne? Maybe the cmc from the other day will turn out to be correct ha.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will this be that 27-28 degree snow our area from here to ORH is famous for? 

I think so...lol.

[WintersComing]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will this be that 27-28 degree snow our area from here to ORH is famous for? 

Looks like the Cape mixes

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What’s the cieling for interior sne?

Could be the higher end of those ranges i posted if we continue to get these bumps back to the NW, But then we may start running into problems along the coast if that's the case so its kind of a fine line of sorts unless we can get this to really wind up i think which does not look like it may be the case.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think so...lol.

KTOL 28F snows are like Frank Pepes pizza in New Haven. 

[Bostonseminole]

maybe might flight gets cancelled sunday AM!!!  does logan get much?

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will this be that 27-28 degree snow our area from here to ORH is famous for? 

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think so...lol.

Yeah I agree...prob upper 20s.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

KTOL 28F snows are like Frank Pepes pizza in New Haven. 

He can take the extra inch of fluff or so. I'll take the wet stuff.                       

[CoastalWx]

There is a weak banding signature as Chris and others pointed out. Maybe near BDL on either side to ORH and srn NH. It may surprise folks further west who are hugging the QPF. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

KTOL 28F snows are like Frank Pepes pizza in New Haven. 

Never fails. Never wet man snow. But not overly powdery. It’s generally good substance snow with density . But it’s fairly cold aloft , so prob a bit dryer 

[SnowHole413]

GEFS looks great. 

[WintersComing]

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

maybe might flight gets cancelled sunday AM!!!  does logan get much?