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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)


Baroclinic Zone

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z NAM with huge improvements now. As usual, take NAM with a grain of salt. Tries to give warning snows for much of eastern southern New England and then into some of Maine. 

Cant see QPF on EPS but the mean H5 and slp look decent. 

Very similar to the op. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z NAM with huge improvements now. As usual, take NAM with a grain of salt. Tries to give warning snows for much of eastern southern New England and then into some of Maine. 

Cant see QPF on EPS but the mean H5 and slp look decent. 

What were the differences at h5 this run of the NAM Will? It looked to me like the southern vort was trailing behind a bit slower and allowed the northern stream more room to amplify?

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2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

What were the differences at h5 this run of the NAM Will? It looked to me like the southern vort was trailing behind a bit slower and allowed the northern stream more room to amplify?

N stream was a bit deeper this run. I didn't see a huge change in S stream. The S stream might have held together slightly better. 

The changes are subtle but they matter. There's a lot of moisture down south so tilting this a little sooner can make for a large difference in sensible wx. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

N stream was a bit deeper this run. I didn't see a huge change in S stream. The S stream might have held together slightly better. 

The changes are subtle but they matter. There's a lot of moisture down south so tilting this a little sooner can make for a large difference in sensible wx. 

Yeah I was going to say, upon further inspection, looked like the southern energy interacted more with the northern stream since the northern stream trough was a little deeper. Should be interesting to track what happens today, hopefully this run is onto something.

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Haven't had time to post but def would not write this off

Euro 0z vs 12z digs northern stream slightly better but another tick would be solid advisory+ for eSNE

Nam 6z vs 0z... both digs northern stream better and sharper trough + ticks southern stream west by 12z Sat and oh so close to a much bigger hit

Really would not take much and plenty of time for the necessary ticks

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NWS BOSTON: Tech Post: Snow Potential] Latest 6z model guidance has increased the potential for accumulating snow even back into the interior Sat/Sat night. Do not want to jump on one set of model runs, but will wait for the 12z guidance later this morning to evaluate trends.

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