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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)


Baroclinic Zone

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It went 300 miles to the northeast lol. If you compare the panels for the same time (06z Saturday).

See that.  All I can think is that it's a data sparse area so there is a lot of "filling in the blanks".  I'm taking an OP run with a grain of sand right now.  00z and 12z tomorrow will shed a lot on this "threat".  It's a precarious setup with little confidence.  I feel better where I am on seeing some snow.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

See that.  All I can think is that it's a data sparse area so there is a lot of "filling in the blanks".  I'm taking an OP run with a grain of sand right now.  00z and 12z tomorrow will shed a lot on this "threat".  It's a precarious setup with little confidence.  I feel better where I am on seeing some snow.

You sit in one of the better spots no doub't, Others will need more changes with buckling the flow to the east.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd prob slightly more aggressive than Harvey's current forecast...esp for I-95 and interior SE MA, but no need to say anything too ominous yet.

Yeah I was thinking that...I can't fault him...but I don't see a glaring reason to differ much from the euro guidance right now. You can err on the side of caution and still give that area maybe 1-2.

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25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I was thinking that...I can't fault him...but I don't see a glaring reason to differ much from the euro guidance right now. You can err on the side of caution and still give that area maybe 1-2.

Also-he has 2 days to update if needed.

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24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I was thinking that...I can't fault him...but I don't see a glaring reason to differ much from the euro guidance right now. You can err on the side of caution and still give that area maybe 1-2.

Yeah i mean, it's still 3 days out. Plenty of time to change things tomorrow and Friday if the threat really ramps up. Prob don't want to get everyone riled up for plowable snowfall this weekend and then have to say "just kidding, only flurries" on Friday night.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah i mean, it's still 3 days out. Plenty of time to change things tomorrow and Friday if the threat really ramps up. Prob don't want to get everyone riled up for plowable snowfall this weekend and then have to say "just kidding, only flurries" on Friday night.

He could just start high and adjust higher when needed.

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