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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, alex said:

This sounds as interesting as it is hard to understand for us uneducated weenies. What does that mean?

Without out getting too deep in the quagmire of unintelligible nerd jargon ... models employ assimilated data to 'fill the gaps' so to speak, in the grids of data that are called initialization.  ECMWF's method for doing it is more sophisticated in the sense that it uses some time-dependent smoothing of across assimilation as so to prevent spurious permutations and/or it is hoped also to retain those that are legitimate as emergent in the system.  

I don't believe the supercomputers they use to crunch their models and/or the subsequent array of dependencies is any more powerful than the 2.5 peta flop monsters NCEP uses these days ... but, the assimilation "correctness" at the point of initialization of the run (00 hr) needs to be as close to perfect as possible - which is also ... impossible in the idealized sense unless there is discovered a way to know what all of the quantum momentum states of every particle in the system is at that point in time.  If they can do that... they'd be on their way to controlling those momentum states and the "weather modification net" would come on line - god forbid.   Anyway, the 4-d system is a way to do the next best thing, and that is assess what can be ignored and run the model based on that ...  

At a fundamental level ... you have to understand that the fluid medium of the atmosphere is set into motion by irregular heating across the surface of the planet, together with the planet's rotation. From those two variables ... the genetics of utter chaos is born.  And, in chaos (fractals) there are some times emergent properties of a complex system of interactions that cannot be predicted because of that pesky problem with the linearity of time - ya can't measure it if it ain't happened yet.  That's why true weather prediction has a limitation ...and it is more likely that weather prediction will actually become more like weather controls give advances in technology capable of doing that...  Good fodder for sci-fi.    

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alex

alex

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Without out getting too deep in the quagmire of unintelligible nerd jargon ... models employ assimilated data to 'fill the gaps' so to speak, in the grids of data that are called initialization.  ECMWF's method for doing it is more sophisticated in the sense that it uses some time-dependent smoothing of across assimilation as so to prevent spurious permutations and/or it is hoped also to retain those that are legitimate as emergent in the system.  

I don't believe the supercomputers they use to crunch their models and/or the subsequent array of dependencies is any more powerful than the 2.5 peta flop monsters NCEP uses these days ... but, the assimilation "correctness" at the point of initialization of the run (00 hr) needs to be as close to perfect as possible - which is also ... impossible in the idealized sense unless there is discovered a way to know what all of the quantum momentum states of every particle in the system is at that point in time.  If they can do that... they'd be on their way to controlling those momentum states and the "weather modification net" would come on line - god forbid.   Anyway, the 4-d system is a way to do the next best thing, and that is assess what can be ignored and run the model based on that ...  

At a fundamental level ... you have to understand that the fluid medium of the atmosphere is set into motion by irregular heating across the surface of the planet, together with the planet's rotation. From those two variables ... the genetics of utter chaos is born.  And, in chaos (fractals) there are some times emergent properties of a complex system of interactions that cannot be predicted because of that pesky problem with the linearity of time - ya can't measure it if it ain't happened yet.  That's why true weather prediction has a limitation ...and it is more likely that weather prediction will actually become more like weather controls give advances in technology capable of doing that...  Good fodder for sci-fi.    

Thank you, Tip - much appreciated

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
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That area of precip moving through Nebraska is our Pacific Jet energy, that will combine with the southern stream energy over TX and the Gulf of Mexico to act as our storm brewing which will be off the NC coastline by Friday night waiting to come northward as our arctic shortwave dives southward and phases with the southern stream disturbance, this will allow bombogenesis like the UKMET and GGEM models show for later Friday night overnight and into Saturday

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JBinStoughton

JBinStoughton

Posted
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12 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

That area of precip moving through Nebraska is our Pacific Jet energy, that will combine with the southern stream energy over TX and the Gulf of Mexico to act as our storm brewing which will be off the NC coastline by Friday night waiting to come northward as our arctic shortwave dives southward and phases with the southern stream disturbance, this will allow bombogenesis like the UKMET and GGEM models show for later Friday night overnight and into Saturday

Don’t know if it’s gonna happen quite like that but would be really nice. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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20 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

That area of precip moving through Nebraska is our Pacific Jet energy, that will combine with the southern stream energy over TX and the Gulf of Mexico to act as our storm brewing which will be off the NC coastline by Friday night waiting to come northward as our arctic shortwave dives southward and phases with the southern stream disturbance, this will allow bombogenesis like the UKMET and GGEM models show for later Friday night overnight and into Saturday

I don't know about Bombogenesis at this juncture James...but I'd love for it to shift a lil more west and then go Bombo around ACY..that would work.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

lol brutal.  The thing is James seems to post like he wants it to bomb out like GGEM/UKMET but I think he'd really want this to be a strung out weak wave to stay snow.  The deeper it gets the more rain he gets.

It's gonna be tough either way on the Cape...the airmass is not a fresh arctic airmass for this system.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The canal area might do okay... just west has actually been an area that’s been shown to do pretty well over the last couple runs. 

Out that way... going to be tough though

Yeah I'm not talking about SE MA west of the canal...but the Cape source region is off the water in the northerly wind and without an arctic airmass, it's gonna be tough there. They prob need a bombing low like the Ukie but far enough east not to give them ML temp issues ad then they could do okay...but that scenario is pretty unlikely.

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