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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)


Baroclinic Zone

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This reminds me of a similar event last winter where the ensembles were consistently more bullish than the op runs(I believe the GEFS led the way there as well) and eventually we saw the op runs come back to a hit in the short range once the previous system exited and the vort got into sampling territory. Not saying the same will happen again here, but given that this is the second system in the pipeline behind tonights rain(always focus on one system at a time), the relative bullishness of the ensembles, and the lack of sampling of the data, I'm not ready to write off an advisory level snowfall for portions of the region. I think you really want to see positive improvement tomorrow though as the data should be moving into better sampling then and the variance on the ensembles is centered around tomorrow as was discussed in the earlier thread.

As of now I'd probably give it a 1 in 3 chance of being anything more than some flurries/shsn, but then again I wouldn't be shocked to see this come back to a region-wide decent event. Regardless, feels nice to be tracking snow events again.

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I wouldn't be shocked if this doesn't trend and instead just went boom on a model then another model goes boom.

I dont believe its likely but i believe the ceiling for this much higher than folks believe. 

The Nam at 0z looks fascinating with H5 closed off near Gulf coast.

Yes i know its the Nam but its got my interest, especially the 18z Gefs. Keep trending that vort strong near gulf and ya.

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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I wouldn't be shocked if this doesn't trend and instead just went boom on a model then another model goes boom.

I dont believe its likely but i believe the ceiling for this much higher than folks believe. 

The Nam at 0z looks fascinating with H5 closed off near Gulf coast.

Yes i know its the Nam but its got my interest, especially the 18z Gefs. Keep trending that vort strong near gulf and ya.

It wouldn't take a ridiculous turn of events to get a widespread warning event...the individual ensemble members on the GFS and EPS show how it could happen.

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42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It wouldn't take a ridiculous turn of events to get a widespread war ning event...the individual ensemble members on the GFS and EPS show how it could happen.

Are we looking For a stronger more consolidated vort in the deep south or what

Do those individual Ensembles share that Create higher totals

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Are we looking For a stronger more consolidated vort in the deep south or what

Do those individual Ensembles share that Create higher totals

We want the thing to dig for oil down south...and yeah, more consolidated. The western ridge is a bit flatter this run which affects how much it digs and we also see the vorticity kind of sheared and trying to hang back in the south which doesn't allow the trough to sharpen as much as the 18z run.

 

 

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