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lilj4425

The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

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I agree the RGEM handled the system pretty well 24-36 hrs out so far. However, it missed the dividing line a bit in my area. Showed me in the liquid for the duration other than the final wrap around. But missed it by what looks to be 20-30 miles at this point. The freezing line is now south and east of me! I have accumulating snow!

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We've been full on rain here going on 2 hours. If this had been snow wow we'd be raking it in. Been really rough over here. Everything that did accumulate is still here, not sure why it's so warm.

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On 12/6/2017 at 11:01 AM, HKY_WX said:

I think we'll see the EURO jump NW this afternoon most likely. This seems to be the timeframe (48 to 72 hrs out) it has been happening w/ SECS over the past few years. If this trend continues, starting to think western NC is going to be hammered. I will likely head home Friday afternoon if that's the case. This setup aloft is pretty ideal for that portion of the state.

Well my thinking from a few days ago worked out. This will likely be a major event (anything 6in+ in HKY in my estimation) in hickory after all said and done. Currently over 4 inches and this doesn't look to stop anytime soon. Boundary layer temps favored the colder NAM and so i'm thinking 6 to 10 inches in Hickory before all is said and done.

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2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Well my thinking from a few days ago worked out. This will likely be a major event (anything 6in+ in HKY in my estimation) in hickory after all said and done. Currently over 4 inches and this doesn't look to stop anytime soon. Boundary layer temps favored the colder NAM and so i'm thinking 6 to 10 inches in Hickory before all is said and done.

Thanks for your content the past couple of days. Line doesn't seem to show much of a sign of coming back over SE Orange County, so I think I'm about ready to call this one. Too much rain on the ground anyway at this point. Enjoy! Hopefully next time we get a more eastern track.

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3 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Thanks for your content the past couple of days. Line doesn't seem to show much of a sign of coming back over SE Orange County, so I think I'm about ready to call this one. Too much rain on the ground anyway at this point. Enjoy! Hopefully next time we get a more eastern track.

You could see this coming based on the upper low track. Pretty classic one for the northern deep south and mountains/foothills. It's really tough to get a snow or ice storm outside of the hills without more sfc cold than this system had. That said, that system coming out of the plains I mentioned a few days ago is going to re-energize the upper levels /sfc low tomorrow morning and will likely spark a deformation type band that will rotate out of the Piedmont. Could see a few hours of light snow in the morning.

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Just now, HKY_WX said:

You could see this coming based on the upper low track. Pretty classic one for the northern deep south and mountains/foothills. It's really tough to get a snow or ice storm outside of the hills without more sfc cold than this system had.

Absolutely! Makes all the sense in the world. Hopes weren't too high until I saw it falling like crazy this afternoon and even begin to pile up a bit. Seeing all of this snow in Alabama/Georgia doesn't exactly help either, but so it goes! Happy for everyone for whom this worked out. Cheers!

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3 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

Is it me or is the radar a little concerning in terms of moisture

Only in areas where it's currently snowing!

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4 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

Is it me or is the radar a little concerning in terms of moisture 

I noticed that to. Almost like the Low has stopped tapping into the gulf.

 

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Per radar, that r/s line just retreated very rapidly out of southern Greenville county and it looks like it's even raining in DT Greenville right now 

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2 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Per radar, that r/s line just retreated very rapidly out of southern Greenville county and it looks like it's even raining in DT Greenville right now 

I haven't seen snow in awhile, think it's just the proverbial 33 and rain, May not even be sleet anymore. Oh well maybe a half inch of mess here at my place, better than nothing!

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18 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Wonder how accurate this will be. 15z tomorrow. HRRR is similar

nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_21.png

Very accurate.  Do you see how it sets up just west of Wake Co?  The entire field should head exactly in the direction it's oriented with just enough eastward progress to give Brick Tamland a few flurries, as the southernmost part of the band scrapes the northern fringes of the county.

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22 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Per radar, that r/s line just retreated very rapidly out of southern Greenville county and it looks like it's even raining in DT Greenville right now 

It's amazing how many ways we can drew up a system!! How about the dry slot keeps us dry rest of the night, so we don't cool and slowly warm!? Then this magic 2nd band / round comes in at daybreak and we try to have light snow accumulate during the daylight hours!?

Robert said the second round is coming, might even have thundersnow in the NC Piedmont tomorrow! :(

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Been alternating between snow and a mix for the past hour or two. We had some awesome flakes earlier in the day/evening. Hoping to see it turn back to all snow later tonight. Anyone see that happening for my area?

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Still can't get over the HRRR.......has the secondary band pivot right over the Atlanta metro and has us in the snow until close to 11 AM on Saturday morning.....just incredible if it pans out this way.

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4 hours ago, HKY_WX said:

You could see this coming based on the upper low track. Pretty classic one for the northern deep south and mountains/foothills. It's really tough to get a snow or ice storm outside of the hills without more sfc cold than this system had. That said, that system coming out of the plains I mentioned a few days ago is going to re-energize the upper levels /sfc low tomorrow morning and will likely spark a deformation type band that will rotate out of the Piedmont. Could see a few hours of light snow in the morning.

You know, I read this a lot on this board but therein lies the rub. If we have more cold air accompanied by a strong HP, it seems to push the moisture SE with it and we get a weak under-performing, unimpressive, strung out mess. Those of us that live in central NC can't seem to win either way. I remember the big snows around here when I was young but it seems like the last several years we can't even buy one.

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3 hours ago, audioguy3107 said:

Still can't get over the HRRR.......has the secondary band pivot right over the Atlanta metro and has us in the snow until close to 11 AM on Saturday morning.....just incredible if it pans out this way.

The Obs over AL in that snow band are not impressive, but the 700-850mb temps in that area such as MGM are not anywhere near as ideal as they will be over the ATL metro.  Many places are -1 to -2C at 700 while ATL will be near -7-9C at 09z

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