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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.


lilj4425
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19 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said:

Not to make this as too much of an IMBY post, but I just got on here and was wondering if anyone could tell me briefly how things are looking for 40 miles N of ATL? I know I've been riding the low precip/borderline cold temps train. Are things looking up for this area? Thanks!

I like 1-3 there

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7 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

hrrr was pretty accurate last jan but the snow line ended up ~50miles or so north of where it was forecasted, had me safely in the snow and ended up with rain and sleet. just a forewarning.

 

Fortunatley in this setup and with the wave moving through Friday morning the WAA is very weak. The warm nose looks like it’ll move in late Friday afternoon per NAM. 

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14 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

January CJ said 4-6 with locally higher amounts. We got a backend dusting :(

Well i was one of the lucky ones and got a good 3-3.5 here in Easley. My parents in Dacusville got 5.5! But yeah, just East of here missed on that one, but it all evens out, you guys got the Halloween snow a couple years ago and I didnt get a flake.

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Just now, EmersonGA said:

I don't know about you but I've been waiting on the I-20 rule to catch up and push this thing our way.

Hey there, Emerson!  It wasn't happening too fast so I wasn't sure if this thing would ever trend (expand) NW. I was assuming all points south of me would do better. We may be in the game now buddy.

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42 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I could see this one busting majorly for the upstate in a good way. If we get heavy rates tomorrow morning and quickly overcome the shallow warm air at the surface, we could be off to the races with an inch of liquid falling down as heavy sticking snow at 32/33,(plus the sun angle isn't bad at all like it is in feb/march).  In the perfect scenario I think north of 85 could get 5 or 6 inches of paste.

On the other hand, the shallow warm air at the surface could hold strong and we get our inch of liquid with nothing more than white rain pelting down and melting on contact all day.

Warm nose at 750mb could also set up a little farther north than models show and preclude us from any snow.

Odds are something goes wrong and we get mostly rain or non-sticking slop, but there is certainly a non-zero chance we get pasted with significant snow-storm.

 

Edit to add: The southern Mountains are going to get smoked. I think that's a lock now.  Highlands/cashiers/lake toxaway, towards caesar's head will get get 6 to 10 inches, IMO.

Good post burrell, always like seeing your input. Your last part is a great description of the 2009 December storm, Mtns got a big one, including SC mtns, but is was just a cruel hair too warm below 2000 ft.Got a few sleet pellets mixed in in Taylors, but nothing else. That was tough one to swallow.Even though this is a different setup, it could have very similar results.

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1 minute ago, WXinCanton said:

Yes it does!  Emerson looks good too, crazy to go from being fringed to stop going North!  Hope all is well.

Two days ago, Gilmer County was going to be dry so these are good developments. You and Emerson are really in great spots according to most of the models this evening. L:et's reel this thing in.

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

Beginning to wonder if some of the modeling is catching on to the boundary layer not being as warm as expected?

Well this is the GFS but it's feeling similar to last January's event where whoever is on the northern edge of the r/n is going to get a big wet snow storm.

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NWS Atlanta is getting worried about the NE mountains...

 

NWS Atlanta
-------------------
"Everyone....from the latest round of models, we are looking closely at the NE GA mountain counties which is an area of concern and possible area of upgrade to warning. We will discuss further on the 730 pm webinar along with what other trends/concerns we have. Model profiles are cold enough and with the precip shield showing a northwestward trend, there is more precip potential across the NE counties."

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Here in Douglas just west of Atlanta it’s going to be feast or famine.  We’ve been safely in the snow on all models but a last minute jump of 20-40 miles will screw us over.  I expect to see snow falling most of the day tomorrow but little accumulation.  Possibly the Xmas day storm redux here in Atlanta. 

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