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lilj4425

The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

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I will say the guys and gals at GSP do a great job and know the area very well. No matter what the models are showing, I would lean on them, especially as difficult as this area is to forecast. 

 

 

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Just now, SimeonNC said:

Sorry if this is too banterish but for some reason even though every model has CLT getting at least some mixing tomorrow, TWC is still forecasting all rain.

Your problem is looking at TWC! You'll get better, more reliable forecasts, right here! There you get GFS only forecast 

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3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Do any of you think they will send out Winter Storm Warnings for Danville, in Southern VA?

highly doubt it. Think we get a WWA. If models keep it up tonight though we might get one in the morning

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13 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

I doubt GSP are going to issue any advisories other than the HWO.

This system doesn’t even deserve a HWO. Maybe a SWS instead. 

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14 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

I will say the guys and gals at GSP do a great job and know the area very well. No matter what the models are showing, I would lean on them, especially as difficult as this area is to forecast. 

 

 

Yep!  They have a difficult job covering three different geographical areas and they are the best IMO.  Just look at the complexity of this one event....

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

How much for GFS , in your opinion, with these new runs of RAP, HRR and such!? Still mainly CAESARS HEAD and areas mainly!?

We say "it's a tough call" a lot, but the HRRR and latest NAMs suggest that this is a tough call for the GSP to CLT corridor.  Conservative forecast would be to go with rain, with a chance for snow to mix in.  The soundings suggest that when the precip is heavy, it could very well flip to snow (I looked at Simpsonville).

There is a lot of discussion about the warm nose...but I wanted to point out that the warm bubble east of Atlanta over into the upstate is where there is a pocket of above freezing air in the lower levels of the atmosphere (cold air having a tough time moving in over the mtns).  As precip falls and we go toward morning, the sounding shows cooling of this lower level warmth, down to where it could be cold enough for snow.

This is different from what is traditionally referred to as a warm nose where warm air is pouring in aloft from the southeast at the 850-750mb levels.  In that case, the sounding shows the warmth aloft 'nosing' above freezing as opposed to lower level warmth above freezing.

Bottom line: having the above freezing warm layer closer to the ground is easier to overcome than warm air pouring in aloft from the southeast.

 

The text below is the scenario we are looking for here.  That is, the 850mb low isn't closed and strong with our storm tomorrow and the warm advection aloft is staying closer to the SE coast than it is pouring inland (source - http://www.wxonline.info/topics/preciptype.html )

"Melting of Snow to Rain"

"Melting snow to rain requires latent heat. This heat is taken from the surrounding air. In order to obtain substantial temperature change due to melting, it is necessary to have rather heavy amounts of precipitation falling with little or no warm advection. If this occurs, you can have heavy rain turn to heavy snow as the freezing level sinks downward due to cooling by latent heat absorption.

Although this situation can occur, cases of substantial lowering of the freezing level due to melting are relatively rare because the combination of heavy precicpitation without warm air advection is rare."

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I think the 18Z GFS is much more realistic, showing an expanding rain shield to the NW tomorrow (snow in the mountains), then changing to snow from west to east across the foothills and northern Piedmont as the entire system shifts east Saturday morning. 

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50 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

Here's the HRRR sounding for Friday AM at RDU along with the corresponding reflectivity map. That's a heavy, wet snow verbatim.

Sounding.JPG

Interesting there how it shows the strong omega (red bars on left) higher up in the 300-500mb range....indicative of the strong divergence from a very strong jet streak aloft over the northeast

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1 minute ago, rdwhynot said:

Wow, this looks nice on the Meteogram Generator for KBHM, but who knows if it will materialize?

 

2017-12-07 15_42_01-Meteogram Generator.jpg

Most of those use ratios that won’t be possible this week. 

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Always funny watching the S VA folks root for the NW trend that crushes the dreams of 97% of this board. Posts like "epic run of the GFS", just twist the knife.

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

GREAT RUN for S VA folks wow!!

I mean, it basically always ends up this way right?  Frosty, Jonathon, and Big Frosty sad and moping, saying they can't buy QPF, and they end up with the good stuff.....ha, all in fun Buddy - good luck your way!

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GFS has to be right. Cold air source filtering down the west side of the Apps is what's putting some areas in the Deep South in play and leaving the areas to the north and east with a cold rain. GFS stuck to its guns. I don't like it but I respect it 

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