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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.


lilj4425
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Just now, lilj4425 said:

I think I should be the one who creates these winter storm threads from now on. ;) 

CJ updated forecast on FB , from an hour ago= hilarity!!! "New" map has 1-2" along 85 and dusting to south around FT Inn!! Lol wut??? Was busting before he could finish typing!! You know a lot of mets are praying for it to switch back to rain!!

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23 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Kinda weird that DT is only saying about an inch or so for Richmond, but the weather channel says 8-12" lol

I Agree...Role reversal lol. I was expecting to see higher totals for Richmond on his 1st call map. Hopefully he ups his amounts for Ric on his final call

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 211 PM Friday...

Upgrade to Winter Storm Warning for Forsyth... Guilford...
Davidson... Randolph... Alamance... Orange... and Person
Counties into Saturday afternoon...

 

 

Based on satellite, radar, and observational data including
heavy wet snow upstream from Jackson to Birmingham to much of
western NC (locally already 5-8 inches)... we will upgrade our
Northwest Piedmont to a Winter Storm Warning (2-4 inches of
wet snow), some locally higher totals possible. The battle of
the cold air (very marginal) with surface temperatures just
above freezing, and warmer air aloft intruding into mainly
eastern NC (or as far west as potentially Greensboro and
Lexington this evening), with an initial warm ground have been
greatly limiting snowfall accumulations thus far. However, as we
lose insolation with nightfall, most guidance suggests snow will
continue (very wet) through near sunset, with a potential lull
in some areas early to mid evening, before increasing again
later tonight. Storm totals of 2-4 slushy inches are possible
with locally 5 inches just north of the urban areas of Winston-
Salem to Greensboro, and around Roxboro. Roads should be wet to
slushy, especially on bridges and overpasses.
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7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

CJ updated forecast on FB , from an hour ago= hilarity!!! "New" map has 1-2" along 85 and dusting to south around FT Inn!! Lol wut??? Was busting before he could finish typing!! You know a lot of mets are praying for it to switch back to rain!!

I remember when CJ got ridiculed for busting badly when he predicted too much snow. I don’t blame him for being conservative after that. 

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23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

CJ updated forecast on FB , from an hour ago= hilarity!!! "New" map has 1-2" along 85 and dusting to south around FT Inn!! Lol wut??? Was busting before he could finish typing!! You know a lot of mets are praying for it to switch back to rain!!

if a dusting south of 85 is what he's calling for, he better hope it stops within the next 5 minutes. I'm thinking 2-4 and maybe more than that. Just need the warm nose to stay away 

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GFS and Euro both roll comma head precip through NE GA into the western Carolinas in the overnight to late morning timeframe....should keep the snowy mood going in those regions.  This makes sense given that the trough axis is still as far west as the Mississippi/Alabama border at 4AM.  It won't fully clear out until that trough axis swings through.  Accumulations will be more efficient once the sun goes down...it makes a difference.

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Allan Huffman on twitter just showed a map that looks like a thunderstorm could cause a gap in precipitation for a solid chunk of the NC piedmont tonight. What does that mean? Seems like the 18z NAM has it too? Not a met, so not sure how that works. Interesting, albeit sad phenomenon if it were to happen today.

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4 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Allan Huffman on twitter just showed a map that looks like a thunderstorm could cause a gap in precipitation for a solid chunk of the NC piedmont tonight. What does that mean? Seems like the 18z NAM has it too? Not a met, so not sure how that works. Interesting, albeit sad phenomenon if it were to happen today.

The 3km NAM has convective shower/thunderstorm cells rolling through SE GA into S SC, so the model is indicating that those storms could rob the moisture transport into central NC...we'll see

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