The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

How can all this be less than 24 hours away, and not even a WWA issued?

They wait till the last minute a lot here...especially early in the winter season. I think it is a mental disorder of possibly being wrong. If the trend continues during the overnight, expect an advisory or warning when you wake up tomorrow, but no one will notice it until they get to work and the grocery stores will get SMASHED at 5pm. I hope you already got ingredients for milk sandwiches!

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[odell.moton]

Hello upstate Sc


.

[shahroz98]

Hope the RGEM run verifies

[BullCityWx]

3 minutes ago, CLTwx said:

Downstream over perform....lets get this upstream 

 

Friends in Austin and San Antone with a fairly surprising coating

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

10” lollipop over west ATL.  Hard to ignore the signals that we get more than the inch or so forecast.  

 

Dewpoints just seem too high right now.  If those do no start dropping I don't see how any significant snow occurs there

[mackerel_sky]

5 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

10” lollipop over west ATL.  Hard to ignore the signals that we get more than the inch or so forecast.  

I don't care what city it is, but I would love somebody to get 6-8"+ , where they were forecasting a dusting or no accumulation! 

[calculus1]

Latest update from GSP:

Quote

As of 1000 PM EST Thursday: Have expanded the Advisory farther into
the NC mountains and NW NC Piedmont, and upgraded to a Winter Storm
Warning for Habersham and Rabun. To the details...event unfolding in
TX is either at or above some of the predicted levels, and HRRR is
actually doing a pretty good job of nowcasting the event, so would
like to think that the rest of the HRRR forecast is in line.
Guidance continues to bump up QPF. Atmosphere is slowly saturating
so evaporational cooling will of course have a limit, but concern
with incoming CAA will be the dynamic cooling and diabatic effects,
specifically the cooling of the surface layer from the latent heat
of melting, which will serve to continue to lower the snow layers
without a source of low-level WAA (and there really isn`t one). KFFC
00z sounding had a bit of a warm nose just above 800mb but that
should erode by the time precip gets this far north. 00z NAM bufr
soundings show a deep near-freezing isothermal layer with gradually
dropping snow levels here at GSP through the night (using the
thickness nomogram is a bit misleading with the near-freezing layer
so deep). So even with the increased QPF, think snow ratios might
not be quite as high and so have not increased snow amounts quite as
much as the QPF would suggest. In any case, since WSW criteria for
GA is 2", Rabun should easily get it, and northern Habersham as
well. Most of the SC mountains should easily get 2", but WSW
criteria for SC is 3" (4" for NC), so for now have kept SC and NC to
advisories. Would not be surprised to see the rest of the NC
mountains added to the advisory or expanded east more into the
Piedmont (right now Burke/Cleveland/Rutherford Counties are really
only included because of the Southern Mountains). Graham and Swain
actually do not currently have advisory-criteria snow amounts, but
for consistency`s sake, made sense to go ahead and include them.

 

[griteater]

GFS has a really dynamic look to it for western NC (that's where I was focused - could be in other areas too).  From a thermal standpoint, you can see a squeeze play going on as this system develops - the 850 zero degree line is working its way NW and backing right into the cold air in W NC....long duration event on the GFS...ya'll have winter storm warnings in the NC mtns yet?  You need them

[mackerel_sky]

2 minutes ago, odell.moton said:

Hello upstate Sc


.

DO NOT FALL FOR THIS! I PROMISE, YOULL BE SEVERELY DISSAPOINTED! 

[franklin NCwx]

Totals are going up faster than bitcoin!

[kvegas-wx]

Triad 11pm forecast is for 1-3" mostly overnight tomorrow night with a possibility for more if heavier bands develop.  Probably the safest forecast they can go with now, but I think their timing may be off.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

https://twitter.com/AggieFootball/status/938954075521081344?s=17

 

https://twitter.com/AggieFootball/status/938951483462168576?s=17

[tarheelwx]

3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Triad 11pm forecast is for 1-3" mostly overnight tomorrow night with a possibility for more if heavier bands develop.  Probably the safest forecast they can go with now, but I think their timing may be off.

Who is saying that?  NWS for Colfax still says max 1/2".

[kvegas-wx]

1 minute ago, tarheelwx said:

Who is saying that?  NWS for Colfax still says max 1/2".

11pm news on channel 9 WFMY.  Wouldnt expect Lanie Pope to be different.  Even my WU forecast for Kvegas has me at 5"+.

[J.C.]

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Dewpoints just seem too high right now.  If those do no start dropping I don't see how any significant snow occurs there

There is the cold front draped across the south right now just north of Atlanta, I'm sure as the storm moves east it will pull some drier/cooler air in from the north.

[WarmNose]

GSP said the HRRR was doing well with now casting but didn't it show rain in San Antaonio while it was ripping fatties? I'm confused. this thing just might overperform for some and if not, well, I'd love to get NAM'd one more time today before I go to bed 

[bargainmusic]

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

11pm news on channel 9 WFMY.  Wouldnt expect Lanie Pope to be different.  Even my WU forecast for Kvegas has me at 5"+.

I hate how wrong our meteorologists tend to be. It's so annoying.

[DC2Winston]

2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

11pm news on channel 9 WFMY.  Wouldnt expect Lanie Pope to be different.

Fox8 Van Damme Denton said about the same across Triad. Upped totals modestly from earlier. Slushy 1-3” but acknowledged multiple model support for higher. Warm ground, warm ground.

[mackerel_sky]

Can somebody post one of this pretty 850 maps with the dotted lines so I can check them out. Saw one earlier, I swear a mini-CAD was coming down from the mountains!?

[mackerel_sky]

Somebody, what's JC and KK saying! Out of town right now

[BornAgain13]

The thing is even if you cut these clown totals in half, which is likely, you still have a big storm!

[BornAgain13]

0z GEM 

[BK Rambler]

Current conditions at

Houston Intercontinental Airport (KIAH)

Lat: 29.98°NLon: 95.36°WElev: 89ft.

Light Snow

36°F

2°C

Humidity	89%
Wind Speed	N 13 mph
Barometer	30.32 in (1026.7 mb)
Dewpoint	33°F (1°C)
Visibility	7.00 mi
Wind Chill	27°F (-3°C)
Last update	7 Dec 9:53 pm CS

 

Another downrange report...

[mackerel_sky]

Somebody said CMC was looking good!?

[JoshM]

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Somebody said CMC was looking good!?

Ya... the clown map had you between the 8 and 10 inches, so cutting that in half would be good for you.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

27 minutes ago, odell.moton said:

Hello upstate Sc


.

Pretty map but so far we have some major problems in the upstate. Temps are basically steady in mid 40s and we have a flaming 925 level. Add to that the bulk coming through in the middle of the daytime and we don't have a good recipe. And don't forget, western upstate NEGA are always the last ones to benefit from CAA coming over the mtns, there's a reason all the models are showing that minimum there.

[BornAgain13]

Canadian Kuchera

 

 

[DopplerWx]

i understand being wary of the hrrr but to think it is going to be THIS off? not likely.  this is one of those warning shots the day before a storm that you ignore at your own peril.

[WarmNose]

7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z GEM 

Sweet mary mother of god

[mackerel_sky]

1 minute ago, DopplerWx said:

i understand being wary of the hrrr but to think it is going to be THIS off? not likely.  this is one of those warning shots the day before a storm that you ignore at your own peril.

Canadian fired a warning shot!