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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.


lilj4425
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Just now, wncsnow said:

Think the HiRes Nam has right idea.

refcmp_ptype.us_ma.png

I think you have the right idea my man. You have to think we are in the right rear quadrant in this instance, which is going to lead to some pretty decent ascent and lift for moisture to get rung out. Nam is too dry imo at 0z. Not wishcasting but from a physics standpoint the hires Nam is much more “real” looking.

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Just now, CaryWx said:

Doesn't the NAM have a tendency to overdue precip.?

Yes. That’s why it is somewhat confusing when you have the physics I mentioned above that it wouldn’t paint a better picture than what it is portraying precip wise. A lot of things are coming together and then to throw gulf moisture in there.. I think the 18z gfs did a great job portraying what reality might look like.

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I think you have the right idea my man. You have to think we are in the right rear quadrant in this instance, which is going to lead to some pretty decent ascent and lift for moisture to get rung out. Nam is too dry imo at 0z. Not wishcasting but from a physics standpoint the hires Nam is much more “real” looking.

Yeah, the hi-res nam is pretty great for picking up on dry slots and overall precipitation right before a storm in my experience. The past few winters I think it has done a pretty good job of picking up on the effects of terrain and temps as well. Probably my favorite short range model. 

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I got to say, regardless of what I get, I am pretty excited for the people in the deep south to see this much snow. Would love it if some of Alabama of Mississippi got buried. I am sure snow weenies there have been waiting years for such an event. I can't imagine waiting years between significant snows. Hopefully schools are prepared and closing down in those area. would hate to see another ATL situation. Are there any warnings there yet? 

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Just now, CARDC79 said:

Aren't we at best looking at 6:1 versus 10:1 on the map?  Or maybe even 4:1 aka White Rain...

I would suspect so but will let the experts comment.  Regardless you are in a decent if not solid location for the best this storm can deliver outside of the higher elevations.

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