Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.


lilj4425
 Share

Recommended Posts

@Lookout Thanks for posting that, the RAP is interesting as it seems to be a good bit colder than most models across the SE. Either it's picking up something the other models are missing or just out to lunch. I remember in some recent storms that the RAP seemed to be on the warmer end of guidance, more like the NAM. Perhaps it's picking up on less of a warm nose and/or more dynamic cooling to start?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, shahroz98 said:

What do you guys feel about ATL, GSP, and Charlotte in terms of snow totals as of now ? Seems to me like most of the models are in somewhat agreement..

There is no way to accurately forecast this, to many variables.  Anywhere in Atlanta could see all mixing, or you could get lucky and get some heavy wet snow bursts that stick to elevated surfaces for a few hours.  Folks on here could give you a much better analysis, but from what the models are telling us, expect nothing to a slushy inch that might hang around a few hours.  Roads will be unaffected until after midnight Friday night.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

We will be lucky to even get that. 35 degrees and rain is what I’m expecting. 

fortunately from the start i had really low goals and  was going to be happy if i just saw any flakes at all.  Which is a good thing because that seems to be close to the best case scenerio where i'm at. If i had to guess now, it will be rain or sleet to start (air is really dry so would think it starts as rain/sleet.) followed by maybe a few hours of wet ...non sticking snow...before going back to rain...maybe ending as a little more non sticking snow if i'm lucky.  Unless that warm nose actually is not as strong as advertised (which we all know it's more likely i win the lottery), i'm not expecting any accumulations where i'm at. 

I think along and north of 85 in the upstate will eventually do ok...but only if the gfs is wrong with low level temps. The gfs is a lot warmer at 925mb to the surface over the upstate...but it seems to be alone in that regard. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, J.C. said:

16z HRRR

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_18.png

This image fits very well for what almost all guidance is showing (and with Climo) for the NEGA/Upstate/WNC crew. Warm buble over NEGA/Upstate with snow SW from there and snow over WNC mtns. Sort or an upside down banana of snow. This is climo and the look we see about 95% of the time. Always disappointing, but never surprising. 

 

Also for this area, we have timing going against us with the bulk coming in at the worst time of day. Needs to be 8 hours earlier or 8 hours later. With solar radiation it's very difficult to chip away at a warm BL or get much accum even if you do. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Remember when looking at the Euro output maps that is based off a standard 10:1 ratio. The ratios in this event will be more like 5:1 when you factor in the marginal temps aloft and warm ground. I'd recommend cutting those totals by 60% or so to get a much more realistic idea of what to expect on the ground.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

Remember when looking at the Euro output maps that is based off a standard 10:1 ratio. The ratios in this event will be more like 5:1 when you factor in the marginal temps aloft and warm ground. I'd recommend cutting those totals by 60% or so to get a much more realistic idea of what to expect on the ground.

Agreed, but question. Does the kuchera ratio not take those variables into its output? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...