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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.


lilj4425
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Gotta stay realistic on the totals.  Never thought we’d see more than an inch in the Triangle. Knew .5 was more realistic. Knew that accumulation was tough. Just seeing the snow this time of year blows my mind.  Getting upset because you won’t see 3-10 inches is... silly. It was never gonna happen in reality. 

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Just now, snowlover91 said:

Yep, it appears the GFS/EURO have this one down. I thought the GFS was out to lunch but it certainly has held firm and seems like it may be closest to reality. 

The Euro wasn’t similar to the GFS in AL/GA/MS really.  More for areas north.  The Euro had 4-5 inches of snow in ATL while the GFS had none 

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I'll lean on ukie,rgem,euro , can.

Expect 3 inches to fall vicinity of I 85 from the sky. Whether any or how much accumulates is the wildcard. Eitheir way it's a win this early, espeacilly with how the second half of next week is looking. That might turn out to be the biggest window of opportunity this young season.

 

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9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro wasn’t similar to the GFS in AL/GA/MS really.  More for areas north.  The Euro had 4-5 inches of snow in ATL while the GFS had none 

Other than the 12z run today, the Euro has focused the heaviest qpf in NC for Raleigh and east and that’s also what GFS shows. I don’t go by the snow maps because of all the variables that play into it and the biases each model has that affect the outcome. For me, qpf placement/amounts and 500mb vort maps are the two areas I compare. GFS and Euro have been pretty consistent in that for the most part, especially the GFS. 

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Well, this may put more folks east of the mtns in play for some flakes if temps cooperate (a big if)...regardless, there is usually a little NW nudge with these systems before go time

You know it's coming. That call map you made earlier is based off years seeing it happen time and time again. Only will be 40 to 50 miles. But it never fails to put an egg in the jackpot crowd face from 48 hrs out.

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4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

You know it's coming. That call map you made earlier is based off years seeing it happen time and time again. Only will be 40 to 50 miles. But it never fails to put an egg in the jackpot crowd face from 48 hrs out.

As long as the system doesn't just collapse on the models, yeah, it usually nudges NW at the end.  Had weaker model runs this aftn and evening, but we still have a storm

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My grid forecast. even with the better model runs this morning, I would take this and run:

Friday Night
Rain and snow likely before 1am, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday
A chance of snow, mixing with rain after 10am, then gradually ending. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Light and variable wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
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Lol at all the cliff diving over night. All the relative newbies on here need to remember a few things when it comes to snow in the south.

#1. Never put your hopes in cold air making it over the mountains in time. Cold chasing moisture never pans out for us east of the mountains.

#2. Never trust NAM snow output

#3. Be thankful for any winter precipitation in December (it is rare)

#4. Don't believe it until the snow actually starts to fall.

#5. Don't get into a pissing match with the veteran posters, we have lost way too many really good members of the years. Their valuable posts are missed this time of year.

Bonus for me with this storm, I've been able to ID several candidates for the mute button well ahead of real snow chasing season, lol.

 

Enjoy what ever snow falls tomorrow. We are only in early December people.

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From NWSRal:

This 4 AM EST surface analysis reveals one of the prohibitive factors for appreciable measurable snow in cntl NC. The weak ridge of high pressure from TX to NC is not sufficiently cold/dry to support much snow; and the upstream arctic front will be blocked by the Appalachians. 

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