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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.


lilj4425
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Just now, jjwxman said:

Looks like the classic case of GOM convection blocking moisture transport to me. Nothing can kill a storm system in the SE faster than GOM convection. 

It's the SW that turned more negative near the lakes allowing the lakes low to be more dominant. This caused the gulf low to be weaker and pull more warm air to the lakes low. 

#Lakeslow 

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This NAM trend is not surprising, just coming to the GEFS and EPS, a general 1-3" event here in GA, mainly from here SW. It was never going to stick much anyway, its early Dec for pity's sake,  so no cliff diving here since I was suspicious of a big event all along. If I get a nice dusting to an inch or two on the grass it will be a bonus considering how much more of the winter is left.

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1 minute ago, shahroz98 said:

What's happening with the NAM ? i dont have the model available so i dont know whats going on. Someone want to elaborate ?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017120700&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 

here’s a link to the model.  It is showing a lot less snow than last run

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS out to 21 and I don't think it's going to budge....height field across the SE is an exact match and little change out west

RGEM has a warm nose killing off any wintry precip just east of Atlanta and beyond. I dont know how reliable that model is but its sorta falling in with the NAM and GFS at this point ):

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS out to 21 and I don't think it's going to budge....height field across the SE is an exact match and little change out west

I’d say the GFS and Euro have done pretty well with this so far. They stuck with their guns and haven’t showed the amped UK or CMC solutions... it remains to be seen how it verifies but the GFS and Euro blend seems like a good way to go. 

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 Have yet to see a model run in 2 days now that doesn't paint 2 to 3 inches plus in my county( exception 0z nam). Still think there will be a lollipop location somewhere in triad which covers eastern alamance all the way back to pilot mtn where a 2 to 3 inches verifies. It'll be localized but someone will get a good enough rate to cover up the blades of grass. Asphalt on the other hand is a different matter.

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