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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.


lilj4425
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17 minutes ago, Lookout said:

not surprising it would be warmer...looks like it's well north of every other model with the surface low. 

GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

First off, my mistake, the 850mb temp maps aren't even out yet for the 12z run, but yeah, sfc low ends up at the mouth of the Cape Fear River.  500mb at 72 hour looks remarkably close to the CMC, but thickness line is slightly warmer on UKMet.  Sfc low is stronger and closer to the coast.  

Seeing the UKMet like this is a warning shot.  I don't see us going back weaker/flatter. 

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I have seen the UK be amped too much at this range many times, as well as the CMC.  Throwing the NAM in the trash for now, I'm not discounting an amped solution, but I think the UK today is about the apex of amplification.  My gut feeling is that we see a less amped solution that gets plenty of moisture back west, but temps are so marginal, only western areas will have any shot at slushy accums.  Even there, it should be a struggle.

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I have seen the UK be amped too much at this range many times, as well as the CMC.  Throwing the NAM in the trash for now, I'm not discounting an amped solution, but I think the UK today is about the apex of amplification.  My gut feeling is that we see a less amped solution that gets plenty of moisture back west, but temps are so marginal, only western areas will have any shot at slushy accums.  Even there, it should be a struggle.

The last few years when the NavGem has been this far north and west at this range it’s rarely not led to the flatter models coming further west 

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11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The last few years when the NavGem has been this far north and west at this range it’s rarely not led to the flatter models coming further west 

I hate the Navgem.  But, I do agree with you.  I think the flat solutions wake up, but I am also guessing that the UK & Co. are amped a little too much.

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

If you mean snow with a lakes low, no high to the north, and no cold air damming, Jan 1987 is one

C4ZotgL.gif

oyERS0X.jpg

That LP in 87' looks really close to the SC coast. Curious as to how that produced a snow event for areas south and east of I85? Stronger cold air source west of the Apps? Thanks Grit

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Just now, WarmNose said:

That LP in 87' looks really close to the SC coast. Curious as to how that produced a snow event for areas south and east of I85? Stronger cold air source west of the Apps? Thanks Grit

Super dynamic storm...strong, closed off 850mb low.  A low that tugged to the coast is normally not good for GSP to CLT

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